TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131250
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 54.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 37–41 Denys Shcherbak Ivan Romaniak has won 37 of their 78 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Romaniak beat Shcherbak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-41 in 78
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 4 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1712 vs Shcherbak 1718
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 60% vs Shcherbak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 40% vs Shcherbak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak -1 · Shcherbak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.00 / Shcherbak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131250
Romaniak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 115 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 103
Shcherbak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 151 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it92% 86 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it77% 118 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak6wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRomaniak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak80%4 of 5
AwayShcherbak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S2Romaniak2Shcherbak8n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S3Romaniak4Shcherbak6n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S4Romaniak5Shcherbak1n = 6Romaniak took 5 of 6
S5Romaniak4Shcherbak1n = 5Romaniak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakShcherbakR − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.337.1+1.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 537 vs 332 / 64145.4%51.8%244 / 537 vs 332 / 641Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakRomaniak 2.00/Shcherbak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak236890D. Shcherbak331111113
WSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak331111113D. Shcherbak259880
WSep 11 · 03:00I. Romaniak472121111113D. Shcherbak4611148762
WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak48117811113D. Shcherbak3541111632
WSep 7 · 03:15I. Romaniak4011126113D. Shcherbak359101151
LSep 1 · 08:25I. Romaniak53118161172D. Shcherbak54911185113
LAug 31 · 17:25I. Romaniak227870D. Shcherbak331111113
WAug 25 · 05:55I. Romaniak49881111113D. Shcherbak3811117272
LAug 24 · 13:25I. Romaniak186480D. Shcherbak331111113
WAug 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak50119119103D. Shcherbak3971141162
I. Romaniak10
LSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635560WSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.3611791192I. Romaniak3.00711114113WSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120LSep 12 · 11:05I. Romaniak1.571211681R. Haiseniuk2.25101311113LSep 12 · 09:05V. Plishylo2.00781111113I. Romaniak1.7311111482LSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 07:05Y. Kravets2.251112881I. Romaniak1.5761411113LSep 12 · 05:35I. Romaniak1.8012690N. Kovalchuk1.911411113
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 14 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.281011121142D. Shcherbak3.50129147113LSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:05S. Rak1.67116411113D. Shcherbak2.1051111952WSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.57911117113R. Lazebnyi2.2511861122LSep 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911113D. Shcherbak1.91311861LSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890LSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143LSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780
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