TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126716
Played Sep 14Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115611411119115
Denys Shcherbak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 84 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Rak at 56.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 53–45 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 45 of their 98 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-45 in 98
Rak
Correct
gap of 8 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1825 vs Shcherbak 1724
Rak
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Shcherbak 40%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Shcherbak 40%
Rak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -2 · Shcherbak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.67 / Shcherbak 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13126716
Rak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 265 of 407
Up 2–0, closes it93% 128 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it83% 185 of 224
Shcherbak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 97 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak6wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%5 of 5
AwayShcherbak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S2Rak8Shcherbak2n = 10Rak took 8 of 10
S3Rak6Shcherbak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Rak3Shcherbak2n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakShcherbakR − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.731.9+2.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 921 vs 329 / 63655.2%51.7%508 / 921 vs 329 / 636Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.67/Shcherbak 2.10
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak4281211113D. Shcherbak331110481
LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak31811481D. Shcherbak4011711113
LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak3981141242D. Shcherbak511181110113
WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak3811511113D. Shcherbak31811481
WSep 1 · 04:55S. Rak351311113D. Shcherbak2011180
LAug 31 · 18:55S. Rak32811671D. Shcherbak4211911113
WAug 25 · 11:25S. Rak331111113D. Shcherbak229580
WAug 24 · 14:55S. Rak331111113D. Shcherbak177640
WAug 22 · 11:05S. Rak341112113D. Shcherbak2571080
LAug 20 · 20:00S. Rak3014970D. Shcherbak381611113
S. Rak10
LSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113WSep 14 · 24:30S. Rak2.50111711113D. Pesternikov1.5011611892WSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890WSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461WSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak3.4071111113O. Bindas1.30117681WSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.57911117113R. Lazebnyi2.2511861122LSep 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911113D. Shcherbak1.91311861LSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890LSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143LSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 11 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.6711148762I. Romaniak2.102121111113WSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113LSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.006560
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