TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126966
Played Sep 14Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121191214117411
Denys Shcherbak
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 101 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 77.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 62–29 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 29 of their 91 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:17What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-29 in 91
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 33 in 91, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1887 vs Shcherbak 1717
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 40% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 50% vs Shcherbak 30%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov -2 · Shcherbak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.28 / Shcherbak 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Pesternikov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126966
Pesternikov1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 216 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it85% 174 of 205
Shcherbak3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 97 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov9wins
AwayShcherbak1wins
Pesternikov leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%9 of 9
AwayShcherbakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov9Shcherbak1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S2Pesternikov9Shcherbak1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S3Pesternikov8Shcherbak2n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S4Pesternikov2Shcherbak1n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovShcherbakP − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match35.325.8+9.5per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1105 vs 330 / 63953.4%51.6%590 / 1105 vs 330 / 639Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.28/Shcherbak 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.5%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov4111118113D. Shcherbak30941161
WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov341211113D. Shcherbak2310490
WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov341211113D. Shcherbak1910450
LSep 1 · 06:25D. Pesternikov34812681D. Shcherbak43111011113
WAug 31 · 15:25D. Pesternikov4211911113D. Shcherbak34811781
WAug 25 · 07:55D. Pesternikov331111113D. Shcherbak219840
WAug 24 · 16:25D. Pesternikov331111113D. Shcherbak197750
WAug 22 · 08:35D. Pesternikov361111143D. Shcherbak2989120
WAug 21 · 18:35D. Pesternikov331111113D. Shcherbak238870
WAug 21 · 24:00D. Pesternikov331111113D. Shcherbak172870
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 14 · 16:35O. Bindas1.91811811113D. Pesternikov1.8011711882LSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.3611791192I. Romaniak3.00711114113WSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113LSep 14 · 24:30S. Rak2.50111711113D. Pesternikov1.5011611892WSep 13 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.361111113R. Lazebnyi3.006390WSep 13 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.2012960D. Pesternikov1.611411113WSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 10 · 17:24B. Kohut1.6711117113D. Pesternikov2.10791191
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:05S. Rak1.67116411113D. Shcherbak2.1051111952WSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.57911117113R. Lazebnyi2.2511861122LSep 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911113D. Shcherbak1.91311861LSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890LSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143LSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 11 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.6711148762I. Romaniak2.102121111113
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