TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118119––––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 43–45 Ivan Kozachuk Denys Shcherbak has won 43 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-45 in 88
Kozachuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1759 vs Kozachuk 1824
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 80% vs Kozachuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 70% vs Kozachuk 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -1 · Kozachuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 2.00 / Kozachuk 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kozachuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166325
Shcherbak2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog42% won 95 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 89
Kozachuk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 109 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it83% 81 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak3wins
AwayKozachuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak40%2 of 5
AwayKozachuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shcherbak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Shcherbak2Kozachuk8n = 10Kozachuk took 8 of 10
S4Shcherbak2Kozachuk4n = 6Kozachuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakKozachukS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.036.6−4.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 664 vs 553 / 110051.7%50.3%343 / 664 vs 553 / 1100Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukShcherbak 2.00/Kozachuk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 08:35D. Shcherbak28115391I. Kozachuk3851111113
LSep 18 · 12:35D. Shcherbak2110380I. Kozachuk341211113
LSep 18 · 01:00D. Shcherbak2284100I. Kozachuk341111123
LSep 15 · 08:35D. Shcherbak47511111192I. Kozachuk49115139113
WSep 14 · 16:05D. Shcherbak341211113I. Kozachuk2410860
LSep 14 · 01:00D. Shcherbak28311861I. Kozachuk4211911113
WSep 11 · 01:00D. Shcherbak43611411113I. Kozachuk4611911962
WSep 7 · 01:15D. Shcherbak331111113I. Kozachuk208570
LSep 5 · 05:05D. Shcherbak35117891I. Kozachuk3961111113
LSep 3 · 20:30D. Shcherbak29115761I. Kozachuk4071111113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 21 · 16:35D. Shcherbak3.25115661D. Pesternikov1.3381111113WSep 21 · 15:05D. Shcherbak2.201111123S. Rak1.6145100WSep 21 · 13:35D. Shcherbak1.739101111133I. Romaniak2.00111266112WSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 19 · 11:05S. Rak1.57711111032D. Shcherbak2.2511971293LSep 19 · 10:05R. Haiseniuk2.6391111113D. Shcherbak1.44118971LSep 19 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7351111113D. Shcherbak2.00115391WSep 19 · 06:35O. Hura2.63911681D. Shcherbak1.4411711113WSep 19 · 04:35O. Bindas1.3697100D. Shcherbak3.001111123WSep 18 · 19:05Y. Kravets2.5010890D. Shcherbak1.501211113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 21 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.3891191292S. Rak1.531151110113WSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.28111168113D. Neborak3.5099111192WSep 21 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.10911113113D. Pesternikov1.6711761182WSep 21 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.67111110113I. Romaniak2.10691251WSep 19 · 10:35O. Bindas1.5361360I. Kozachuk2.381115113WSep 19 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.1481111113O. Hura5.00115941WSep 19 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7351111113D. Shcherbak2.00115391LSep 19 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.388760S. Rak1.531111113WSep 19 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.3051112123R. Haiseniuk3.4011310101LSep 18 · 18:05O. Bindas1.504111173I. Kozachuk2.50119921
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