TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Neborak vs Ivan Romaniak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210411811911––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Neborak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Dmytro Neborak at 54.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 4–3 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Neborak beat Romaniak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:31What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Neborak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1680 vs Romaniak 1702
Romaniak
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Romaniak 20%
Neborak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Romaniak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +2 · Romaniak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neborak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.73 / Romaniak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Neborak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13172806
Neborak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 37 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Romaniak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 118 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back28% 46 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeNeborak4wins
AwayRomaniak3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderNeborak leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak80%4 of 5
AwayRomaniakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak5Romaniak2n = 7Neborak took 5 of 7
S2Neborak5Romaniak2n = 7Neborak took 5 of 7
S3Neborak3Romaniak4n = 7Romaniak took 4 of 7
S4Neborak3Romaniak2n = 5Neborak took 3 of 5
S5Neborak1Romaniak2n = 3Romaniak took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricNeborakRomaniakN − RBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match42.340.1+2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 837 vs 246 / 54436.6%45.2%306 / 837 vs 246 / 544Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 1.73/Romaniak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 21 · 17:35D. Neborak411611143I. Romaniak28142120
LJul 21 · 05:55D. Neborak4814118962I. Romaniak521271111113
WJul 20 · 17:25D. Neborak521110711133I. Romaniak52912119112
WJul 19 · 23:30D. Neborak3711114113I. Romaniak32891141
LJul 14 · 11:35D. Neborak399126121I. Romaniak46111011143
WJul 13 · 19:05D. Neborak331111113I. Romaniak184680
LJul 13 · 03:00D. Neborak4688121262I. Romaniak5311111010113
D. Neborak10
WSep 22 · 06:05D. Neborak3.0011711113D. Shcherbak1.36511891WSep 21 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.17811781D. Neborak4.5011911113WSep 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak1.83142120D. Neborak1.831611143LSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.28111168113D. Neborak3.5099111192WSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143LSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 18 · 11:20D. Neborak3.2511711113O. Bondarchuk1.33711991LSep 18 · 09:20O. Ivchuk1.831011119113D. Neborak1.8312791192LSep 18 · 07:20O. Pavlyuk1.8031111113D. Neborak1.91116931LSep 18 · 06:20O. Zhurba1.20111188113D. Neborak4.3346111182
I. Romaniak10
WSep 21 · 19:05S. Rak1.44410111172I. Romaniak2.63111253113LSep 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak1.83142120D. Neborak1.831611143LSep 21 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.638890LSep 21 · 13:35D. Shcherbak1.739101111133I. Romaniak2.00111266112LSep 21 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.67111110113I. Romaniak2.10691251LSep 15 · 10:35I. Romaniak2.101011191I. Kozachuk1.6712118113WSep 15 · 09:05I. Romaniak3.001113113D. Pesternikov1.3661140WSep 15 · 07:35I. Romaniak2.631113911113S. Rak1.4491511562WSep 15 · 06:05I. Romaniak2.6311117143O. Bindas1.448511121LSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak2.006890D. Shcherbak1.731111113
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