TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130878
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012111118911––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 57.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 27–42 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Romaniak has won 27 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-42 in 69
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 15 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1747 vs Kozachuk 1750
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 60% vs Kozachuk 40%
Romaniak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 60% vs Kozachuk 40%
Romaniak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +3 · Kozachuk -1
Romaniak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kozachuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.10 / Kozachuk 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kozachuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130878
Romaniak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 115 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 103
Kozachuk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 107 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it95% 59 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it82% 82 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak4wins
AwayKozachuk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak100%4 of 4
AwayKozachuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak4Kozachuk6n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S2Romaniak3Kozachuk7n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S3Romaniak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Romaniak3Kozachuk3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakKozachukR − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.937.0−3.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 540 vs 549 / 110445.7%49.7%247 / 540 vs 549 / 1104Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukRomaniak 2.10/Kozachuk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 12:35I. Romaniak26410120I. Kozachuk371112143
LSep 10 · 20:30I. Romaniak31129100I. Kozachuk371411123
WSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak3911116113I. Kozachuk34871181
LSep 6 · 20:45I. Romaniak31571181I. Kozachuk3811115113
WSep 1 · 04:25I. Romaniak511181110113I. Kozachuk4391181232
WAug 31 · 15:55I. Romaniak4211119113I. Kozachuk37991181
WAug 27 · 20:30I. Romaniak331111113I. Kozachuk187470
LAug 25 · 10:25I. Romaniak4587111182I. Kozachuk50111198113
LAug 24 · 12:25I. Romaniak25281231I. Kozachuk43111110113
LAug 18 · 05:05I. Romaniak167540I. Kozachuk331111113
I. Romaniak10
WSep 15 · 09:05I. Romaniak3.001113113D. Pesternikov1.3661140WSep 15 · 07:35I. Romaniak2.631113911113S. Rak1.4491511562WSep 15 · 06:05I. Romaniak2.6311117143O. Bindas1.448511121LSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak2.006890D. Shcherbak1.731111113LSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635560WSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.3611791192I. Romaniak3.00711114113WSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120LSep 12 · 11:05I. Romaniak1.571211681R. Haiseniuk2.25101311113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 15 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.3886100S. Rak1.531111123WSep 15 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.83115139113D. Shcherbak1.83511111192LSep 15 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.101161141D. Pesternikov1.6751113113WSep 15 · 05:05I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509880LSep 14 · 18:05O. Bindas1.4491111123I. Kozachuk2.631136101LSep 14 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.5011119832S. Rak1.50891111113LSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120WSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113
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