TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126831
Played Sep 14Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118119911811311
Serhii Rak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:27 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 92 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 63.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 59–85 Serhii Rak Ivan Kozachuk has won 59 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-85 in 144
Rak
Correct
gap of 26 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1765 vs Rak 1844
Rak
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 60% vs Rak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 50% vs Rak 70%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -2 · Rak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 2.50 / Rak 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Rak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126831
Kozachuk2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 95 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Rak1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 265 of 407
Up 2–0, closes it93% 128 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it83% 185 of 224
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk2wins
AwayRak8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk25%1 of 4
AwayRak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk2Rak8n = 10Rak took 8 of 10
S3Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Kozachuk2Rak6n = 8Rak took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukRakK − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.539.4−7.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukRakBasisWin rate · lifetime547 / 1098 vs 510 / 92349.8%55.3%547 / 1098 vs 510 / 923Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakKozachuk 2.50/Rak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 02:00I. Kozachuk166730S. Rak331111113
LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk31117941S. Rak3851111113
LSep 7 · 02:15I. Kozachuk4595121182S. Rak501111107113
LSep 4 · 02:00I. Kozachuk27117361S. Rak4291111113
LSep 1 · 05:55I. Kozachuk32881151S. Rak4011117113
WAug 31 · 16:55I. Kozachuk3711411113S. Rak36811981
LAug 25 · 09:25I. Kozachuk207670S. Rak331111113
LAug 24 · 16:55I. Kozachuk331011481S. Rak4312911113
WAug 18 · 09:35I. Kozachuk44411117113S. Rak4011931162
LAug 17 · 17:05I. Kozachuk30117841S. Rak3961111113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120WSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113WSep 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911113D. Shcherbak1.91311861WSep 14 · 24:00I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509560LSep 13 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.2012960D. Pesternikov1.611411113WSep 13 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.611114123R. Lazebnyi2.20612100LSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113
S. Rak10
WSep 14 · 15:05O. Bindas1.332480S. Rak3.251111113WSep 14 · 14:05S. Rak1.67116411113D. Shcherbak2.1051111952LSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113WSep 14 · 24:30S. Rak2.50111711113D. Pesternikov1.5011611892WSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890WSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461WSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak3.4071111113O. Bindas1.30117681WSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113
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