TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130880
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1155111311911119
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 42–43 Denys Shcherbak Ivan Kozachuk has won 42 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-43 in 85
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1762 vs Shcherbak 1716
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 20% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 50% vs Shcherbak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -1 · Shcherbak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.83 / Shcherbak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozachuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13130880
Kozachuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Shcherbak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk6wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk80%4 of 5
AwayShcherbak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kozachuk3Shcherbak7n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S3Kozachuk7Shcherbak3n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S4Kozachuk3Shcherbak3n = 6split evenly
S5Kozachuk2Shcherbak1n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukShcherbakK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.335.0+1.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime549 / 1104 vs 333 / 64549.7%51.6%549 / 1104 vs 333 / 645Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.83/Shcherbak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 08:35I. Kozachuk49115139113D. Shcherbak47511111192
LSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk2410860D. Shcherbak341211113
WSep 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk4211911113D. Shcherbak28311861
LSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk4611911962D. Shcherbak43611411113
LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk208570D. Shcherbak331111113
WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk3961111113D. Shcherbak35117891
WSep 3 · 20:30I. Kozachuk4071111113D. Shcherbak29115761
WSep 1 · 09:58I. Kozachuk331111113D. Shcherbak168350
LSep 1 · 07:25I. Kozachuk204970D. Shcherbak331111113
WAug 31 · 12:25I. Kozachuk50168114113D. Shcherbak52141181182
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 15 · 10:35I. Romaniak2.101011191I. Kozachuk1.6712118113LSep 15 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.3886100S. Rak1.531111123LSep 15 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.101161141D. Pesternikov1.6751113113WSep 15 · 05:05I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509880LSep 14 · 18:05O. Bindas1.4491111123I. Kozachuk2.631136101LSep 14 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.5011119832S. Rak1.50891111113LSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120WSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 15 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.28991181D. Shcherbak3.5011118113LSep 15 · 10:05O. Bindas1.401111113D. Shcherbak2.757650LSep 15 · 06:35S. Rak1.671111113D. Shcherbak2.102980WSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak2.006890D. Shcherbak1.731111113WSep 14 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.281011121142D. Shcherbak3.50129147113LSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:05S. Rak1.67116411113D. Shcherbak2.1051111952WSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.57911117113R. Lazebnyi2.2511861122
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