TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131167
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleh Bindas
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116115––––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeOleh Bindas to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Bindas above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Oleh Bindas at 67.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Bindas 27–12 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 12 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bindas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-12 in 39
Bindas
Correct
gap of 15 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bindas 1749 vs Shcherbak 1712
Bindas
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bindas 60% vs Shcherbak 40%
Bindas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bindas 40% vs Shcherbak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bindas +1 · Shcherbak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Bindas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bindas form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBindas 1.40 / Shcherbak 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Bindas)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131167
Bindas1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 138 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it80% 106 of 133
Shcherbak2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 100 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBindas6wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBindas leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBindas100%6 of 6
AwayShcherbak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bindas6Shcherbak4n = 10Bindas took 6 of 10
S2Bindas5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S3Bindas7Shcherbak3n = 10Bindas took 7 of 10
S4Bindas4Shcherbak0n = 4Bindas took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBindasShcherbakB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.732.8+2.9per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBindasShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 734 vs 332 / 64363.4%51.6%465 / 734 vs 332 / 643Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BindasBindas 1.40/Shcherbak 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Bindas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bindas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1911440D. Shcherbak351311113
WSep 13 · 22:00O. Bindas381311143D. Shcherbak27114120
LJul 6 · 01:30O. Bindas199550D. Shcherbak331111113
LJul 4 · 11:05O. Bindas45910111232D. Shcherbak531112910113
WJun 30 · 11:05O. Bindas4011711113D. Shcherbak31411971
WJun 29 · 13:35O. Bindas331111113D. Shcherbak165560
WJun 23 · 10:55O. Bindas4311912113D. Shcherbak356111081
LJun 22 · 15:55O. Bindas501111101172D. Shcherbak48135127113
WJun 16 · 08:35O. Bindas331111113D. Shcherbak215970
WJun 15 · 17:05O. Bindas371412113D. Shcherbak29121070
O. Bindas10
WSep 15 · 11:35S. Rak2.75211491O. Bindas1.4011911113WSep 15 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.80861111O. Bindas1.9111114113LSep 15 · 06:05I. Romaniak2.6311117143O. Bindas1.448511121LSep 15 · 05:05I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509880WSep 14 · 18:05O. Bindas1.4491111123I. Kozachuk2.631136101WSep 14 · 16:35O. Bindas1.91811811113D. Pesternikov1.8011711882LSep 14 · 15:05O. Bindas1.332480S. Rak3.251111113LSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 15 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.28991181D. Shcherbak3.5011118113LSep 15 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.83115139113D. Shcherbak1.83511111192LSep 15 · 06:35S. Rak1.671111113D. Shcherbak2.102980WSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak2.006890D. Shcherbak1.731111113WSep 14 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.281011121142D. Shcherbak3.50129147113LSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:05S. Rak1.67116411113D. Shcherbak2.1051111952WSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.57911117113R. Lazebnyi2.2511861122
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