TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130733
Played Sep 15Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211119411911––
Oleh Bindas
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Bindas to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Oleh Bindas below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 68 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Bindas at 69.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 15–70 Oleh Bindas Serhii Rak has won 15 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bindas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-70 in 85
Bindas
Correct
gap of 55 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1853 vs Bindas 1762
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Bindas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 60% vs Bindas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Bindas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Bindas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bindas form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 2.75 / Bindas 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Bindas)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13130733
Rak2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back11% 9 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Bindas1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 138 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it80% 106 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak4wins
AwayBindas6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBindas leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak66.7%2 of 3
AwayBindas71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak3Bindas7n = 10Bindas took 7 of 10
S2Rak6Bindas4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak4Bindas6n = 10Bindas took 6 of 10
S4Rak5Bindas2n = 7Rak took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakBindasR − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.837.1−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakBindasBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 929 vs 466 / 73555.3%63.4%514 / 929 vs 466 / 735Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BindasRak 2.75/Bindas 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Bindas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bindas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 15:05S. Rak331111113O. Bindas142480
WSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak4071111113O. Bindas32117681
LJul 5 · 20:00S. Rak4339111372O. Bindas521111811113
WJul 4 · 05:35S. Rak4512139113O. Bindas3910111171
WJul 3 · 14:05S. Rak4071111113O. Bindas33119941
LJun 30 · 05:35S. Rak197660O. Bindas331111113
LJun 29 · 15:05S. Rak3431141152O. Bindas49119117113
LJun 27 · 05:35S. Rak2510960O. Bindas341211113
LJun 22 · 14:25S. Rak34119951O. Bindas4291111113
LJun 13 · 11:35S. Rak25412271O. Bindas43111011113
S. Rak10
WSep 15 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.3886100S. Rak1.531111123LSep 15 · 07:35I. Romaniak2.631113911113S. Rak1.4491511562WSep 15 · 06:35S. Rak1.671111113D. Shcherbak2.102980LSep 15 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.501111113S. Rak2.508670WSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635560WSep 14 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.5011119832S. Rak1.50891111113WSep 14 · 15:05O. Bindas1.332480S. Rak3.251111113WSep 14 · 14:05S. Rak1.67116411113D. Shcherbak2.1051111952LSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113
O. Bindas10
WSep 15 · 10:05O. Bindas1.401111113D. Shcherbak2.757650WSep 15 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.80861111O. Bindas1.9111114113LSep 15 · 06:05I. Romaniak2.6311117143O. Bindas1.448511121LSep 15 · 05:05I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509880WSep 14 · 18:05O. Bindas1.4491111123I. Kozachuk2.631136101WSep 14 · 16:35O. Bindas1.91811811113D. Pesternikov1.8011711882LSep 14 · 15:05O. Bindas1.332480S. Rak3.251111113LSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113
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