TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130711
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111012––––
Serhii Rak
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:19 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Serhii Rak at 62.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 60–86 Serhii Rak Ivan Kozachuk has won 60 of their 146 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
60-86 in 146
Rak
Correct
gap of 26 in 146, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1761 vs Rak 1842
Rak
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 40% vs Rak 60%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 50% vs Rak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +1 · Rak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 2.38 / Rak 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Rak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13130711
Kozachuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 95 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Rak1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 268 of 410
Up 2–0, closes it93% 129 of 139
Up 1–0, closes it83% 187 of 226
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk2wins
AwayRak8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk40%2 of 5
AwayRak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kozachuk3Rak7n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S3Kozachuk3Rak7n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S4Kozachuk3Rak5n = 8Rak took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukRakK − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.539.6−7.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukRakBasisWin rate · lifetime549 / 1103 vs 513 / 92849.8%55.3%549 / 1103 vs 513 / 928Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakKozachuk 2.38/Rak 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 17:05I. Kozachuk4211119832S. Rak50891111113
WSep 14 · 02:00I. Kozachuk4211119113S. Rak31791141
LSep 11 · 02:00I. Kozachuk166730S. Rak331111113
LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk31117941S. Rak3851111113
LSep 7 · 02:15I. Kozachuk4595121182S. Rak501111107113
LSep 4 · 02:00I. Kozachuk27117361S. Rak4291111113
LSep 1 · 05:55I. Kozachuk32881151S. Rak4011117113
WAug 31 · 16:55I. Kozachuk3711411113S. Rak36811981
LAug 25 · 09:25I. Kozachuk207670S. Rak331111113
LAug 24 · 16:55I. Kozachuk331011481S. Rak4312911113
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 15 · 10:35I. Romaniak2.101011191I. Kozachuk1.6712118113WSep 15 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.83115139113D. Shcherbak1.83511111192LSep 15 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.101161141D. Pesternikov1.6751113113WSep 15 · 05:05I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509880LSep 14 · 18:05O. Bindas1.4491111123I. Kozachuk2.631136101LSep 14 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.5011119832S. Rak1.50891111113LSep 14 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8010860D. Shcherbak1.911211113LSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120WSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113
S. Rak10
LSep 15 · 11:35S. Rak2.75211491O. Bindas1.4011911113LSep 15 · 07:35I. Romaniak2.631113911113S. Rak1.4491511562WSep 15 · 06:35S. Rak1.671111113D. Shcherbak2.102980LSep 15 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.501111113S. Rak2.508670WSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635560WSep 14 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.5011119832S. Rak1.50891111113WSep 14 · 15:05O. Bindas1.332480S. Rak3.251111113WSep 14 · 14:05S. Rak1.67116411113D. Shcherbak2.1051111952LSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113
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