TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111012115113711
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 68.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 61–25 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 25 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:51What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-25 in 86
Rak
Wrong
gap of 36 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1798 vs Romaniak 1688
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 40% vs Romaniak 0%
Rak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 50% vs Romaniak 30%
Rak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Romaniak -5
Romaniak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.44 / Romaniak 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166537
Rak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 261 of 399
Up 2–0, closes it93% 131 of 141
Up 1–0, closes it82% 185 of 226
Romaniak2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 118 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back28% 46 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak7wins
AwayRomaniak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%6 of 6
AwayRomaniak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Romaniak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak6Romaniak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak7Romaniak3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S4Rak2Romaniak2n = 4split evenly
S5Rak2Romaniak1n = 3Rak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakRomaniakRak − RomaniakBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.631.5+5.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime519 / 941 vs 245 / 54355.2%45.1%519 / 941 vs 245 / 543Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.44/Romaniak 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 07:35S. Rak4691511562I. Romaniak551113911113
WSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak331111113I. Romaniak165560
WSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak511161112113I. Romaniak5091171492
LSep 8 · 07:25S. Rak2046100I. Romaniak341111123
WSep 7 · 14:55S. Rak331111113I. Romaniak154380
WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak331111113I. Romaniak155370
LSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak237880I. Romaniak331111113
WAug 31 · 13:55S. Rak4311811133I. Romaniak347115111
WAug 25 · 07:25S. Rak51911911113I. Romaniak4511911772
WAug 24 · 18:55S. Rak331111113I. Romaniak186570
S. Rak10
WSep 21 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.3891191292S. Rak1.531151110113LSep 21 · 15:05D. Shcherbak2.201111123S. Rak1.6145100LSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143WSep 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.44113561S. Rak2.6371111113LSep 19 · 11:05S. Rak1.57711111032D. Shcherbak2.2511971293LSep 19 · 09:05O. Bindas1.3611411113S. Rak3.00911871WSep 19 · 08:05S. Rak1.30111314173R. Haiseniuk3.4081512151WSep 19 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.388760S. Rak1.531111113WSep 19 · 05:35S. Rak1.251111113O. Hura3.756560LSep 18 · 02:00S. Rak1.531110161072I. Kozachuk2.388121412113
I. Romaniak10
LSep 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak1.83142120D. Neborak1.831611143LSep 21 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.638890LSep 21 · 13:35D. Shcherbak1.739101111133I. Romaniak2.00111266112LSep 21 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.67111110113I. Romaniak2.10691251LSep 15 · 10:35I. Romaniak2.101011191I. Kozachuk1.6712118113WSep 15 · 09:05I. Romaniak3.001113113D. Pesternikov1.3661140WSep 15 · 07:35I. Romaniak2.631113911113S. Rak1.4491511562WSep 15 · 06:05I. Romaniak2.6311117143O. Bindas1.448511121LSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak2.006890D. Shcherbak1.731111113LSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635560
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