TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Kozachuk vs Serhii Rak 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1199118111311711
Serhii Rak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 101 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 59.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 61–89 Serhii Rak Ivan Kozachuk has won 61 of their 150 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-89 in 150
Rak
Correct
gap of 28 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1797 vs Rak 1734
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 40% vs Rak 20%
Kozachuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 70% vs Rak 20%
Kozachuk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +2 · Rak -4
Rak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 2.25 / Rak 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Rak)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13172886
Kozachuk2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back20% 26 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Rak1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite65% won 262 of 403
Up 2–0, closes it93% 131 of 141
Up 1–0, closes it82% 186 of 227
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk2wins
AwayRak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk25%1 of 4
AwayRak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Kozachuk1Rak9n = 10Rak took 9 of 10
S4Kozachuk4Rak3n = 7Kozachuk took 4 of 7
S5Kozachuk1Rak3n = 4Rak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukRakK − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.541.3−5.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukRakBasisWin rate · lifetime555 / 1104 vs 519 / 94550.3%54.9%555 / 1104 vs 519 / 945Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakKozachuk 2.25/Rak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 17:05I. Kozachuk5091191292S. Rak481151110113
LSep 19 · 07:05I. Kozachuk218760S. Rak331111113
WSep 18 · 02:00I. Kozachuk578121412113S. Rak541110161072
LSep 15 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2486100S. Rak341111123
LSep 14 · 17:05I. Kozachuk4211119832S. Rak50891111113
WSep 14 · 02:00I. Kozachuk4211119113S. Rak31791141
LSep 11 · 02:00I. Kozachuk166730S. Rak331111113
LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk31117941S. Rak3851111113
LSep 7 · 02:15I. Kozachuk4595121182S. Rak501111107113
LSep 4 · 02:00I. Kozachuk27117361S. Rak4291111113
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 22 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.611112113I. Romaniak2.2071040WSep 22 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.1011101011113D. Pesternikov1.6751212492LSep 22 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.803890D. Shcherbak1.911111113LSep 21 · 18:05D. Shcherbak2.001111113I. Kozachuk1.738890LSep 21 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.3891191292S. Rak1.531151110113WSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.28111168113D. Neborak3.5099111192WSep 21 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.10911113113D. Pesternikov1.6711761182WSep 21 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.67111110113I. Romaniak2.10691251WSep 19 · 10:35O. Bindas1.5361360I. Kozachuk2.381115113WSep 19 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.1481111113O. Hura5.00115941
S. Rak10
LSep 22 · 07:35D. Neborak3.0061111133S. Rak1.361148111LSep 22 · 06:35S. Rak1.50613111292I. Romaniak2.501111814113LSep 22 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.44111115113S. Rak2.63561761LSep 21 · 19:05S. Rak1.44410111172I. Romaniak2.63111253113WSep 21 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.3891191292S. Rak1.531151110113LSep 21 · 15:05D. Shcherbak2.201111123S. Rak1.6145100LSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143WSep 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.44113561S. Rak2.6371111113LSep 19 · 11:05S. Rak1.57711111032D. Shcherbak2.2511971293LSep 19 · 09:05O. Bindas1.3611411113S. Rak3.00911871
Upcoming Matches
I. Kozachuk
Nothing scheduled
S. Rak
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.