TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Neborak vs Denys Pesternikov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911311––––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 52 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 82.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 5–12 Denys Pesternikov Dmytro Neborak has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1705 vs Pesternikov 1808
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 80% vs Pesternikov 40%
Neborak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 60% vs Pesternikov 40%
Neborak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +2 · Pesternikov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 3.75 / Pesternikov 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13172830
Neborak3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 113 of 323
Down 0–1, comes back15% 29 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 120
Pesternikov1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 218 of 322
Up 2–0, closes it95% 123 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it84% 173 of 207
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak2wins
AwayPesternikov8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak50%2 of 4
AwayPesternikov100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Pesternikov6n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S2Neborak2Pesternikov8n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Neborak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Neborak2Pesternikov4n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6
S5Neborak1Pesternikov2n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakPesternikovN − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.139.3−6.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 840 vs 591 / 110236.7%53.6%308 / 840 vs 591 / 1102Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovNeborak 3.75/Pesternikov 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 18:35D. Neborak4211911113D. Pesternikov34811781
LJul 21 · 08:55D. Neborak197840D. Pesternikov331111113
WJul 20 · 18:25D. Neborak44116511113D. Pesternikov4251111782
LJul 19 · 20:30D. Neborak2495100D. Pesternikov341111123
LJul 14 · 05:35D. Neborak4411711782D. Pesternikov48711811113
LJul 13 · 17:05D. Neborak32117951D. Pesternikov4291111113
LJul 12 · 23:30D. Neborak29711471D. Pesternikov4211911113
LJul 6 · 14:55D. Neborak4891211882D. Pesternikov511110811113
LDec 20 · 08:35D. Neborak237970D. Pesternikov331111113
LDec 19 · 15:35D. Neborak2610790D. Pesternikov341211113
D. Neborak10
WSep 22 · 07:35D. Neborak3.0061111133S. Rak1.361148111WSep 22 · 06:05D. Neborak3.0011711113D. Shcherbak1.36511891LSep 22 · 04:35D. Neborak1.73124891I. Romaniak2.00101111113WSep 21 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.17811781D. Neborak4.5011911113WSep 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak1.83142120D. Neborak1.831611143LSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.28111168113D. Neborak3.5099111192WSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143LSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 18 · 11:20D. Neborak3.2511711113O. Bondarchuk1.33711991LSep 18 · 09:20O. Ivchuk1.831011119113D. Neborak1.8312791192
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 22 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.3613691382D. Shcherbak3.0011111111113LSep 22 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.1011101011113D. Pesternikov1.6751212492WSep 22 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.44111115113S. Rak2.63561761LSep 21 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.17811781D. Neborak4.5011911113WSep 21 · 16:35D. Shcherbak3.25115661D. Pesternikov1.3381111113WSep 21 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.638890LSep 21 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.10911113113D. Pesternikov1.6711761182LSep 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.44113561S. Rak2.6371111113LSep 18 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.171111991R. Haiseniuk4.5013811113WSep 18 · 24:30S. Rak2.634660D. Pesternikov1.441111113
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