TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Mrykh vs Volodymyr Savoliuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111191012117711
Volodymyr Savoliuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Savoliuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Volodymyr Savoliuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Volodymyr Savoliuk at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 10–6 Volodymyr Savoliuk Volodymyr Savoliuk has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Mrykh beat Savoliuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:51What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Savoliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Mrykh
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1673 vs Savoliuk 1720
Savoliuk
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 80% vs Savoliuk 60%
Mrykh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 50% vs Savoliuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -1 · Savoliuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Savoliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.91 / Savoliuk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Savoliuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13172313
Mrykh1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 35 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Savoliuk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 126 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it93% 64 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it84% 91 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwaySavoliuk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh100%3 of 3
AwaySavoliuk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh3Savoliuk7n = 10Savoliuk took 7 of 10
S2Mrykh8Savoliuk2n = 10Mrykh took 8 of 10
S3Mrykh4Savoliuk6n = 10Savoliuk took 6 of 10
S4Mrykh2Savoliuk4n = 6Savoliuk took 4 of 6
S5Mrykh2Savoliuk1n = 3Mrykh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhSavoliukM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.237.5−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhSavoliukBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 463 vs 302 / 53346.7%56.7%216 / 463 vs 302 / 533Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SavoliukMrykh 1.91/Savoliuk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Savoliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Savoliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 15:30M. Mrykh331111113V. Savoliuk216780
LSep 12 · 08:20M. Mrykh206950V. Savoliuk331111113
LSep 11 · 10:50M. Mrykh2477100V. Savoliuk341111123
LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh325121051V. Savoliuk44111012113
WSep 7 · 14:00M. Mrykh525131011133V. Savoliuk521111127112
WSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh45511117113V. Savoliuk4011961132
WAug 15 · 08:50M. Mrykh3811115113V. Savoliuk37991181
LNov 19 · 08:50M. Mrykh354121181V. Savoliuk45111013113
LOct 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh501111115122V. Savoliuk51136711143
WOct 7 · 17:20M. Mrykh331111113V. Savoliuk181890
M. Mrykh10
LSep 21 · 18:30M. Mrykh1.534101181E. Hrytsenko2.3811129113WSep 21 · 16:30V. Maksuta1.44781111102M. Mrykh2.63111179123WSep 21 · 15:30M. Mrykh2.381111113V. Savoliuk1.536780WSep 21 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.836860M. Mrykh1.831111113WSep 21 · 13:00M. Mrykh1.83131194133O. Strutinskiy1.831191111112LSep 14 · 18:00A. Nazarov1.801111113M. Mrykh1.918840LSep 14 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.20117991A. Derevianko1.6171111113LSep 14 · 16:00M. Mrykh1.831191111102O. Strutinskiy1.83131144123LSep 14 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.10661351M. Deineha1.67111111113WSep 14 · 12:30M. Mrykh1.6751112123E. Hrytsenko2.1011710101
V. Savoliuk10
WSep 21 · 19:00O. Strutinskiy3.00571161V. Savoliuk1.3611118113WSep 21 · 17:30V. Savoliuk1.33119712113E. Hrytsenko3.25511111022LSep 21 · 15:30M. Mrykh2.381111113V. Savoliuk1.536780WSep 21 · 13:30V. Maksuta2.20991251V. Savoliuk1.61111110113LSep 21 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.101112133V. Savoliuk1.67910110WSep 15 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.209680V. Savoliuk1.611111113WSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.506440V. Savoliuk1.501111113LSep 15 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy2.75111011113V. Savoliuk1.40612491LSep 15 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.7511114113V. Savoliuk1.40471191WSep 15 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.20613117112V. Savoliuk1.611111511133
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