TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Anatolii Nazarov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811611––––
Maksym Mrykh
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Nazarov above · Maksym Mrykh below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nazarov 9–8 Maksym Mrykh Maksym Mrykh has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mrykh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazarov 1649 vs Mrykh 1648
Nazarov
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazarov 40% vs Mrykh 20%
Nazarov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazarov 40% vs Mrykh 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazarov +1 · Mrykh +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrykh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazarov 1.83 / Mrykh 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mrykh)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166385
Nazarov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Mrykh1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNazarov5wins
AwayMrykh5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazarov80%4 of 5
AwayMrykh80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazarov5Mrykh5n = 10split evenly
S2Nazarov5Mrykh5n = 10split evenly
S3Nazarov7Mrykh3n = 10Nazarov took 7 of 10
S4Nazarov3Mrykh3n = 6split evenly
S5Nazarov2Mrykh3n = 5Mrykh took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNazarovMrykhN − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.637.8+1.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazarovMrykhBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 646 vs 213 / 45954.3%46.4%351 / 646 vs 213 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhNazarov 1.83/Mrykh 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 18:00A. Nazarov331111113M. Mrykh208840
WSep 1 · 06:20A. Nazarov52991112113M. Mrykh47111161092
LAug 1 · 11:20A. Nazarov46111191142M. Mrykh43133115113
LJul 27 · 16:30A. Nazarov42411121052M. Mrykh511171012113
LMar 6 · 09:00A. Nazarov38981561M. Mrykh46111113113
LFeb 27 · 15:50A. Nazarov3911411852M. Mrykh45711511113
WFeb 20 · 15:40A. Nazarov55119911153M. Mrykh45211118132
LFeb 18 · 09:50A. Nazarov2367100M. Mrykh341111123
WFeb 17 · 21:50A. Nazarov341111123M. Mrykh2569100
WFeb 16 · 18:10A. Nazarov341211113M. Mrykh2210660
A. Nazarov10
WSep 21 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.101112133V. Savoliuk1.67910110LSep 18 · 18:00I. Nitchenko3.25991111143A. Nazarov1.33111178122LSep 18 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.20119111072O. Strutinskiy1.61611912113WSep 18 · 16:00A. Nazarov1.4011611113E. Hrytsenko2.75211891LSep 18 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.8011912682A. Derevianko1.916111011113LSep 18 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.001011781M. Deineha1.7312811113LSep 15 · 11:50A. Nazarov2.10411951O. Strutinskiy1.6711411113WSep 15 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.73111298113A. Derevianko2.00510111192LSep 15 · 08:50A. Nazarov1.5019120O. Zhyrnov2.501111143WSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030
M. Mrykh10
WSep 21 · 13:00M. Mrykh1.83131194133O. Strutinskiy1.831191111112LSep 14 · 18:00A. Nazarov1.801111113M. Mrykh1.918840LSep 14 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.20117991A. Derevianko1.6171111113LSep 14 · 16:00M. Mrykh1.831191111102O. Strutinskiy1.83131144123LSep 14 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.10661351M. Deineha1.67111111113WSep 14 · 12:30M. Mrykh1.6751112123E. Hrytsenko2.1011710101WSep 12 · 11:50A. Zozulia1.91711120M. Mrykh1.801113143WSep 12 · 10:50M. Mrykh1.8311117103Y. Riadynskyi1.83881191WSep 12 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83911911113O. Strutinskiy1.8311611862LSep 12 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.106950V. Savoliuk1.671111113
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