TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Marian Brunner 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311811––––
Marian Brunner
Away
2.37
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
911311811––––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 7–2 Marian Brunner Marian Brunner has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Kwiatkowski beat Brunner 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1389 vs Brunner 1242
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Brunner 20%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Brunner 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Brunner -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brunner form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.52 / Brunner 2.37
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13170771
Kwiatkowski1.52
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Brunner2.37
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 51 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski7wins
AwayBrunner2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski100%7 of 7
AwayBrunnern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski7Brunner2n = 9Kwiatkowski took 7 of 9
S2Kwiatkowski5Brunner4n = 9Kwiatkowski took 5 of 9
S3Kwiatkowski6Brunner3n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S4Kwiatkowski1Brunner2n = 3Brunner took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiBrunnerK − BBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match35.032.6+2.4per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiBrunnerBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 281 vs 288 / 59043.4%48.8%122 / 281 vs 288 / 590Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.52/Brunner 2.37
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski451112101113M. Brunner49710121192
WAug 26 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski341211113M. Brunner2410590
WAug 25 · 17:30K. Kwiatkowski3811511113M. Brunner33911671
WAug 12 · 24:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Brunner269890
LAug 11 · 20:20K. Kwiatkowski175840M. Brunner331111113
WJul 30 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski52119119123M. Brunner39311411102
WJul 30 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Brunner258980
LJul 15 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski3097140M. Brunner381111163
WJul 14 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Brunner268990
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 23 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.651112113K. Delikatny2.1041090LSep 23 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.6471060M. Baran2.141112113LSep 23 · 24:45J. Michalik2.07111011113K. Kwiatkowski1.68912791LSep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.49310130M. Karpiuk2.501112153WSep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski1.6651111123P. Gesiarz2.101198101LSep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.55111556102K. Delikatny2.306131111123LSep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski1.5071111742M. Baran2.40119211113WSep 22 · 18:45M. Brunner2.65710121192K. Kwiatkowski1.321112101113LSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.671112113M. Lewczuk2.1051040
M. Brunner10
LSep 23 · 03:30J. Michalik1.7514119113M. Brunner1.951231171LSep 23 · 02:45M. Brunner2.05611791M. Karpiuk1.5611611113WSep 23 · 01:10M. Brunner2.061110911113M. Baran1.5551211692LSep 23 · 24:20K. Delikatny1.60112147113M. Brunner2.20611121162LSep 22 · 23:05M. Brunner2.05711491M. Karpiuk1.6511411113LSep 22 · 21:30M. Brunner2.05117121182P. Gesiarz1.65811146113WSep 22 · 20:20M. Brunner2.381111113K. Delikatny1.535750LSep 22 · 18:45M. Brunner2.65710121192K. Kwiatkowski1.321112101113WSep 22 · 17:30M. Brunner1.90111166113M. Baran1.7596111162LSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113
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