TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161151311––––
David Sochor
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Sochor to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · David Sochor below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 57 set 3, 13-11 — our read held David Sochor at 56.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 3–8 David Sochor Jan Vonasek has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vonasek beat Sochor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Sochor
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1579 vs Sochor 1409
Vonasek
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 60% vs Sochor 40%
Vonasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 60% vs Sochor 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek +2 · Sochor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.73 / Sochor 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Vonasek)+2.1pp
TT Cup · #13168898
Vonasek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 70 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Sochor2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 13 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek3wins
AwaySochor7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSochor leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek33.3%1 of 3
AwaySochor71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek3Sochor7n = 10Sochor took 7 of 10
S2Vonasek7Sochor3n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Vonasek5Sochor5n = 10split evenly
S4Vonasek3Sochor7n = 10Sochor took 7 of 10
S5Vonasek1Sochor3n = 4Sochor took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekSochorV − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.543.4−5.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekSochorBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 734 vs 98 / 23848.9%41.2%359 / 734 vs 98 / 238Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekVonasek 1.73/Sochor 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek4361115113D. Sochor341121381
LFeb 8 · 19:29J. Vonasek4514113982D. Sochor531281111113
LFeb 8 · 18:25J. Vonasek29921171D. Sochor4011117113
LAug 20 · 07:55J. Vonasek3741141172D. Sochor50119118113
LAug 5 · 10:40J. Vonasek52111217662D. Sochor576101911113
LAug 4 · 09:25J. Vonasek27561151D. Sochor3511112113
WJul 21 · 22:05J. Vonasek43111110113D. Sochor37991271
WJul 21 · 19:55J. Vonasek42511114113D. Sochor4711791192
LMay 10 · 20:20J. Vonasek32411891D. Sochor4211911113
LMay 4 · 17:55J. Vonasek25481121D. Sochor3911116113
J. Vonasek10
WSep 21 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.73114113102J. Vonasek2.00611811123WSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.9161115113D. Sochor1.801121381LSep 21 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011119113J. Vonasek1.50471191LSep 20 · 17:35M. Sulc3.00913116123J. Vonasek1.361111911102WSep 20 · 16:20J. Vonasek2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73991191LSep 20 · 15:20J. Vonasek1.6171181152P. Rissky2.20119118113LSep 20 · 14:20J. Vonasek1.536510M. Sulc2.381111113WSep 18 · 10:38J. Vonasek2.10111115133O. Fiklik1.673917111WSep 18 · 08:55V. Jr2.207880J. Vonasek1.611111113WSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113
D. Sochor10
WSep 21 · 08:55A. Langer1.50105100D. Sochor2.501211123LSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.9161115113D. Sochor1.801121381WSep 21 · 07:25D. Sochor2.6313811113O. Fiklik1.441111991LSep 15 · 14:24D. Sochor2.10117116102P. Chlumsky1.67611811123LSep 15 · 12:55D. Sochor1.83781181P. Chlumsky1.8311119113WSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892WSep 15 · 10:55D. Sochor3.001111113P. Moravec1.367690WSep 14 · 17:20J. Hendrych1.60118891D. Sochor2.2071111113LSep 14 · 16:50Z. Zahradka1.5011811113D. Sochor2.50811791LSep 14 · 15:50D. Sochor2.1011581182J. Hendrych1.67811118113
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