TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117911119––
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Langer above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 57.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 24–40 Jan Vonasek Ales Langer has won 24 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-40 in 64
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 16 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1485 vs Vonasek 1569
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Vonasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 40% vs Vonasek 70%
Vonasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -3 · Vonasek -1
Langer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Vonasek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.50 / Vonasek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Vonasek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13166307
Langer2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 66 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Vonasek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 70 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger4wins
AwayVonasek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger75%3 of 4
AwayVonasek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S2Langer4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S3Langer5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Langer3Vonasek4n = 7Vonasek took 4 of 7
S5Langer2Vonasek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerVonasekL − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.338.3−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 544 vs 358 / 73348.4%48.8%263 / 544 vs 358 / 733Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekLanger 2.50/Vonasek 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 06:55A. Langer4211119113J. Vonasek31471191
LSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer27651151J. Vonasek3611113113
LSep 14 · 13:30A. Langer44111011752J. Vonasek52912911113
LSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2711970J. Vonasek351311113
LSep 9 · 09:55A. Langer28561161J. Vonasek4011117113
WSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer331111113J. Vonasek197480
LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer148240J. Vonasek331111113
WAug 27 · 10:55A. Langer42541111113J. Vonasek4211117762
WAug 26 · 06:55A. Langer47111184133J. Vonasek42541111112
LAug 7 · 06:55A. Langer3991121342J. Vonasek531191111113
A. Langer10
LSep 21 · 07:55A. Langer1.91113771O. Fiklik1.8061111113LSep 20 · 13:30A. Langer1.859880O. Fiklik1.851111113LSep 20 · 12:20A. Langer2.2088111162P. Rissky1.61111188113LSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162WSep 18 · 10:09V. Jr1.831111581A. Langer1.8313611113LSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182LSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113LSep 18 · 06:55V. Jr1.831171011113A. Langer1.8381112882WSep 17 · 10:08A. Langer1.911111113P. Moravec1.804880
J. Vonasek10
WSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.9161115113D. Sochor1.801121381LSep 20 · 17:35M. Sulc3.00913116123J. Vonasek1.361111911102WSep 20 · 16:20J. Vonasek2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73991191LSep 20 · 15:20J. Vonasek1.6171181152P. Rissky2.20119118113LSep 20 · 14:20J. Vonasek1.536510M. Sulc2.381111113WSep 18 · 10:38J. Vonasek2.10111115133O. Fiklik1.673917111WSep 18 · 08:55V. Jr2.207880J. Vonasek1.611111113WSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113WSep 18 · 07:25J. Vonasek1.911110711213O. Fiklik1.80612117192WSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432
Upcoming Matches
A. Langer
Nothing scheduled
J. Vonasek
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