TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711114116119––
Dominik Tichy
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 7–2 Dominik Tichy Dominik Tichy has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tichy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1461 vs Tichy 1440
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Tichy 40%
Tichy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 40% vs Tichy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Tichy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.83 / Tichy 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13168624
Dvorak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Tichy1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeDvorak7wins
AwayTichy2wins
3 of 9 to a deciderDvorak leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak100%5 of 5
AwayTichy50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak5Tichy4n = 9Dvorak took 5 of 9
S2Dvorak4Tichy5n = 9Tichy took 5 of 9
S3Dvorak4Tichy5n = 9Tichy took 5 of 9
S4Dvorak5Tichy0n = 5Dvorak took 5 of 5
S5Dvorak3Tichy0n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricDvorakTichyD − TBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.432.6+4.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 348 vs 170 / 27147.7%62.7%166 / 348 vs 170 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.83/Tichy 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 21 · 15:50M. Dvorak4071111113D. Tichy30114691
WSep 16 · 15:50M. Dvorak46115811113D. Tichy3361111232
LAug 28 · 16:25M. Dvorak226880D. Tichy331111113
WAug 17 · 16:20M. Dvorak48511711143D. Tichy51118119122
LJul 31 · 18:23M. Dvorak2481060D. Tichy341112113
WJul 31 · 17:25M. Dvorak331111113D. Tichy142750
WJul 23 · 15:20M. Dvorak331111113D. Tichy194960
WJul 8 · 17:25M. Dvorak51128911113D. Tichy47101111782
WJul 8 · 15:50M. Dvorak4011711113D. Tichy32611781
M. Dvorak10
LSep 21 · 14:20J. Cerny1.8061111113M. Dvorak1.91119991WSep 17 · 17:30D. Sykora1.709630M. Dvorak2.021111113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Sochor1.80131110113M. Dvorak1.911161271LSep 17 · 15:50M. Dvorak2.00612661J. Hendrych1.73111011113LSep 17 · 14:20D. Sykora1.8311111113M. Dvorak1.83841151LSep 16 · 17:49M. Dvorak1.679750J. Dvorak2.101111113WSep 16 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.91961171M. Dvorak1.8011119113WSep 16 · 15:50M. Dvorak2.00115811113D. Tichy1.7361111232WSep 16 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.83118891M. Dvorak1.8391111113LSep 11 · 18:25M. Dvorak1.78311961A. Kral1.9211911113
D. Tichy10
LSep 21 · 16:20J. Cerny1.801111113D. Tichy1.916960LSep 21 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8310970J. Dvorak1.831211113WSep 18 · 18:30J. Dvorak1.65119181182D. Tichy2.109111613113WSep 18 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.2049100D. Tichy1.611111123LSep 18 · 16:25F. Marat2.385121111113D. Tichy1.5311146432LSep 18 · 15:25D. Tichy2.0011129862J. Dvorak1.735101111113WSep 16 · 17:19Z. Zahradka1.73712561D. Tichy2.00111011113LSep 16 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.201111113D. Tichy1.613670LSep 16 · 15:50M. Dvorak2.00115811113D. Tichy1.7361111232LSep 16 · 14:50D. Tichy1.807690J. Dvorak1.911111113
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