TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jiri Cerny
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119116––––
Dominik Tichy
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jiri Cerny at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 1–2 Dominik Tichy Jiri Cerny has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1486 vs Tichy 1440
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 80% vs Tichy 40%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 70% vs Tichy 30%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Tichy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.80 / Tichy 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cerny)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13168620
Cerny1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 20 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it56% 14 of 25
Tichy1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 23 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back27% 6 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCerny1wins
AwayTichy2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTichy leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny2Tichy1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
S2Cerny2Tichy1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
S3Cerny1Tichy2n = 3Tichy took 2 of 3
S4Cerny1Tichy2n = 3Tichy took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCernyTichyC − TBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.342.3−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 154 vs 170 / 27147.4%62.7%73 / 154 vs 170 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.80/Tichy 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny4111136113D. Tichy368111161
LAug 24 · 17:59J. Cerny31118571D. Tichy4181111113
LAug 24 · 14:50J. Cerny4081111372D. Tichy50119811113
J. Cerny10
LSep 21 · 15:20J. Cerny1.83311641J. Dvorak1.8311211113WSep 21 · 14:20J. Cerny1.8061111113M. Dvorak1.91119991WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 16:50J. Cerny1.67911128113V. Jr2.10118101132WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372
D. Tichy10
LSep 21 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.8371111113D. Tichy1.83114691LSep 21 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8310970J. Dvorak1.831211113WSep 18 · 18:30J. Dvorak1.65119181182D. Tichy2.109111613113WSep 18 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.2049100D. Tichy1.611111123LSep 18 · 16:25F. Marat2.385121111113D. Tichy1.5311146432LSep 18 · 15:25D. Tichy2.0011129862J. Dvorak1.735101111113WSep 16 · 17:19Z. Zahradka1.73712561D. Tichy2.00111011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372
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