TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Artur Sobel
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711118118511119
Mariusz Zwolinski
Away
3.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:27 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
711118118511119
H2H Artur Sobel 10–2 Mariusz Zwolinski Mariusz Zwolinski has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sobel beat Zwolinski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (70%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Sobel
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1622 vs Zwolinski 1272
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 350 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 100% vs Zwolinski 20%
Sobel
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 90% vs Zwolinski 40%
Sobel
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +8 · Zwolinski -1
Sobel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zwolinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 1.30 / Zwolinski 3.05
Signal prob.75% / 26%
Edge (Sobel)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13167457
Sobel1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 166 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it78% 119 of 152
Zwolinski3.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 49 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobel8wins
AwayZwolinski2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSobel leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel100%6 of 6
AwayZwolinski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel6Zwolinski4n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S2Sobel7Zwolinski3n = 10Sobel took 7 of 10
S3Sobel9Zwolinski1n = 10Sobel took 9 of 10
S4Sobel5Zwolinski1n = 6Sobel took 5 of 6
S5Sobel1Zwolinski2n = 3Zwolinski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobelZwolinskiS − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.233.3+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelZwolinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime644 / 1188 vs 137 / 37554.2%36.5%644 / 1188 vs 137 / 375Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelSobel 1.30/Zwolinski 3.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.5%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 06:55A. Sobel4291111113M. Zwolinski29116751
WSep 7 · 13:05A. Sobel3814112113M. Zwolinski381271181
WJan 6 · 10:00A. Sobel341111123M. Zwolinski2367100
LJan 6 · 07:30A. Sobel4799111172M. Zwolinski45111166113
WFeb 11 · 10:50A. Sobel341112113M. Zwolinski2381050
LFeb 11 · 04:25A. Sobel4799111172M. Zwolinski48111196113
WFeb 10 · 10:25A. Sobel331111113M. Zwolinski219480
WFeb 10 · 06:40A. Sobel361411113M. Zwolinski2612860
WJan 7 · 14:55A. Sobel4211812113M. Zwolinski399111091
WJan 7 · 09:40A. Sobel49711119113M. Zwolinski4111771152
A. Sobel10
WSep 21 · 09:00A. Sobel1.951111113B. Czerwinski1.749720WSep 21 · 07:40B. Wisniewski3.659760A. Sobel1.171111113WSep 21 · 06:55M. Zwolinski3.70116751A. Sobel1.1691111113WSep 21 · 06:05A. Sobel1.331111113F. Krcil2.955360WSep 21 · 04:30A. Sobel1.25117125113M. Lukaszewski3.05811101162WSep 21 · 03:50R. Stapor2.20411761A. Sobel1.5711611113WSep 15 · 14:40A. Sobel2.00111011113J. Witkowski1.73912761WSep 15 · 13:05A. Sobel1.9511119113J. Zochniak1.70971121LSep 15 · 11:50A. Sobel2.0099110B. Czerwinski1.711111133WSep 15 · 10:10A. Sobel1.3211911113W. Iwasyszyn3.10211761
M. Zwolinski10
LSep 21 · 11:25M. Zwolinski2.551110751B. Czerwinski1.4281211113LSep 21 · 09:25M. Zwolinski3.501141051P. Blocho1.2581112113WSep 21 · 08:35M. Zwolinski2.251111113F. Krcil1.573680LSep 21 · 06:55M. Zwolinski3.70116751A. Sobel1.1691111113LSep 21 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.854690R. Stapor1.361111113LSep 21 · 04:10M. Zwolinski1.839690B. Wisniewski1.871111113WSep 21 · 03:00M. Zwolinski2.101111143M. Lukaszewski1.6084120WSep 19 · 14:40M. Durda1.0411118552M. Zwolinski6.00961111113LSep 19 · 13:30M. Zwolinski1.9011971192A. Szoltysek1.75811118113LSep 19 · 12:15W. Suchecki1.859111113113M. Zwolinski1.80111361162
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