TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411116711611––
Artur Sobel
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
411116711611––
H2H Rafal Stapor 7–5 Artur Sobel Artur Sobel has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1429 vs Sobel 1583
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Sobel 60%
Sobel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 20% vs Sobel 80%
Sobel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Sobel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 2.20 / Sobel 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Sobel)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165351
Stapor2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 102 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 103
Sobel1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 15)
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 165 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it78% 118 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor6wins
AwaySobel4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor80%4 of 5
AwaySobel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Sobel5n = 10split evenly
S2Stapor8Sobel2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S3Stapor5Sobel5n = 10split evenly
S4Stapor4Sobel5n = 9Sobel took 5 of 9
S5Stapor2Sobel2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporSobelStapor − SobelBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.142.4−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporSobelBasisWin rate · lifetime680 / 1208 vs 637 / 118156.3%53.9%680 / 1208 vs 637 / 1181Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelStapor 2.20/Sobel 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:05R. Stapor29611391A. Sobel4011711113
WAug 3 · 07:15R. Stapor3712113113A. Sobel341061171
WJul 28 · 04:25R. Stapor521211108113A. Sobel49107121192
WJul 27 · 07:40R. Stapor3841112113A. Sobel341181051
LJul 21 · 06:05R. Stapor27861121A. Sobel4111118113
WJul 21 · 03:50R. Stapor50911611133A. Sobel48119116112
WJul 14 · 12:40R. Stapor361213113A. Sobel29101180
LJul 13 · 09:25R. Stapor4551113792A. Sobel501161111113
LJun 30 · 05:15R. Stapor53146167102A. Sobel6012111411123
WJun 30 · 03:00R. Stapor4412119123A. Sobel3910811101
R. Stapor10
WSep 21 · 04:55R. Stapor1.751111113F. Krcil1.906590LSep 20 · 14:35A. Wos1.5311911123R. Stapor2.388117101WSep 20 · 13:20R. Stapor1.83151111113M. Minda1.83178841LSep 20 · 12:05R. Chrzescian1.3361111113R. Stapor3.25118481LSep 20 · 10:50G. Kesik2.001111113R. Stapor1.733980LSep 20 · 09:20M. Woskowicz2.20511617113R. Stapor1.61116111522LSep 20 · 07:45R. Stapor3.509680G. Poliniewicz1.281111113LSep 20 · 06:30R. Stapor1.91116931M. Minda1.8061111113LSep 20 · 05:15R. Stapor2.205750D. Solilo1.611111113WSep 20 · 04:10G. Kesik1.918890R. Stapor1.801111113
A. Sobel10
WSep 21 · 04:30A. Sobel1.25117125113M. Lukaszewski3.05811101162WSep 15 · 14:40A. Sobel2.00111011113J. Witkowski1.73912761WSep 15 · 13:05A. Sobel1.9511119113J. Zochniak1.70971121LSep 15 · 11:50A. Sobel2.0099110B. Czerwinski1.711111133WSep 15 · 10:10A. Sobel1.3211911113W. Iwasyszyn3.10211761LSep 15 · 09:00A. Sobel1.68121111872K. Rudomina2.051013311113WSep 15 · 07:40B. Wisniewski3.5061111352A. Sobel1.23117411113WSep 15 · 06:55W. Iwasyszyn3.308650A. Sobel1.301111113WSep 15 · 06:05A. Sobel1.5411711113R. Stapor2.25611391WSep 15 · 04:30A. Sobel1.361181011123K. Klocek2.75611124102
Upcoming Matches
R. Stapor
A. Sobel
Sep 21 · 06:05A. Sobel1.33F. Krcil2.95—Sep 21 · 06:55A. Sobel1.16M. Zwolinski3.70—Sep 21 · 07:40A. Sobel1.17B. Wisniewski3.65—Sep 21 · 09:00A. Sobel1.95B. Czerwinski1.74—Sep 21 · 10:10A. Sobel1.18M. Zwolinski3.55—Sep 21 · 11:50A. Sobel1.97D. Solilo1.61—Sep 21 · 13:05A. Sobel1.28F. Krcil2.85—Sep 21 · 14:40A. Sobel—P. Blocho——
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