TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115119––––
Frantisek Krcil
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
116115119––––
H2H Rafal Stapor 3–1 Frantisek Krcil Frantisek Krcil has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stapor
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1421 vs Krcil 1397
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Krcil 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 20% vs Krcil 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -2 · Krcil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.75 / Krcil 1.90
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Stapor)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13165976
Stapor1.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 386 of 618
Up 2–0, closes it96% 194 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it81% 294 of 365
Krcil1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog15% won 3 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayKrcil1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderStapor leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%3 of 3
AwayKrciln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor3Krcil1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S2Stapor2Krcil2n = 4split evenly
S3Stapor3Krcil1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S4Stapor2Krcil1n = 3Stapor took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaporKrcilS − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.236.5+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime680 / 1209 vs 184 / 41156.2%44.8%680 / 1209 vs 184 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.75/Krcil 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 17 · 13:05R. Stapor331111113F. Krcil157710
LSep 17 · 04:55R. Stapor3241111512F. Krcil47118611113
WSep 14 · 03:50R. Stapor4311813113F. Krcil345111171
WSep 10 · 08:05R. Stapor451111012113F. Krcil50811121092
R. Stapor10
WSep 21 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.854690R. Stapor1.361111113LSep 21 · 03:50R. Stapor2.20411761A. Sobel1.5711611113LSep 20 · 14:35A. Wos1.5311911123R. Stapor2.388117101WSep 20 · 13:20R. Stapor1.83151111113M. Minda1.83178841LSep 20 · 12:05R. Chrzescian1.3361111113R. Stapor3.25118481LSep 20 · 10:50G. Kesik2.001111113R. Stapor1.733980LSep 20 · 09:20M. Woskowicz2.20511617113R. Stapor1.61116111522LSep 20 · 07:45R. Stapor3.509680G. Poliniewicz1.281111113LSep 20 · 06:30R. Stapor1.91116931M. Minda1.8061111113LSep 20 · 05:15R. Stapor2.205750D. Solilo1.611111113
F. Krcil10
WSep 21 · 03:25B. Wisniewski2.15861151F. Krcil1.5511116113LSep 17 · 14:40F. Krcil3.106760D. Kosmal1.321111113LSep 17 · 13:05F. Krcil1.917710R. Stapor1.741111113LSep 17 · 11:50F. Krcil2.6511991182J. Zochniak1.38811119113LSep 17 · 10:10F. Krcil1.848620W. Suchecki1.871111113LSep 17 · 09:00F. Krcil2.2012119452M. Minda1.621041111113LSep 17 · 08:10F. Krcil1.4311471182B. Wisniewski2.50911115113LSep 17 · 06:30B. Czerwinski1.45911118113F. Krcil2.5611631172WSep 17 · 05:40W. Suchecki2.752680F. Krcil1.371111113WSep 17 · 04:55F. Krcil1.80118611113R. Stapor1.9041111512
Upcoming Matches
R. Stapor
F. Krcil
Sep 21 · 06:05F. Krcil2.95A. Sobel1.33—Sep 21 · 07:20F. Krcil1.76M. Lukaszewski1.90—Sep 21 · 08:35F. Krcil1.57M. Zwolinski2.25—Sep 21 · 09:50F. Krcil3.25D. Solilo1.30—Sep 21 · 10:35F. Krcil3.15B. Czerwinski1.23—Sep 21 · 12:15F. Krcil2.75P. Blocho1.30—Sep 21 · 13:05F. Krcil2.85A. Sobel1.28—Sep 21 · 13:55F. Krcil1.48M. Zwolinski2.21—
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