TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Piotr Krukar
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1199115111311118
Dawid Kotwica
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1199115111311118
H2H Piotr Krukar 1–2 Dawid Kotwica Piotr Krukar has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Krukar beat Kotwica 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Krukar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krukar 1113 vs Kotwica 1326
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 213 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krukar 40% vs Kotwica 60%
Kotwica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krukar 30% vs Kotwica 70%
Kotwica
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krukar -3 · Kotwica +1
Krukar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krukar) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krukar form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrukar 1.70 / Kotwica 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krukar)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13166904
Krukar1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kotwica2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 140 of 386
Down 0–1, comes back19% 43 of 222
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKrukar1wins
AwayKotwica2wins
Kotwica leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krukar1Kotwica2n = 3Kotwica took 2 of 3
S2Krukar2Kotwica1n = 3Krukar took 2 of 3
S3Krukar0Kotwica3n = 3Kotwica took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKrukarKotwicaKrukar − KotwicaBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match31.732.0−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrukarKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 17 vs 654 / 158023.5%41.4%4 / 17 vs 654 / 1580Avg sets wonper match1.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.135.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrukarKrukar 1.70/Kotwica 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Krukar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krukar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 20 · 18:30P. Krukar4111118113D. Kotwica26661131
LSep 20 · 24:10P. Krukar31311981D. Kotwica3711411113
LSep 19 · 18:10P. Krukar237790D. Kotwica331111113
P. Krukar10
LSep 20 · 23:45W. Gluszek3.30111811113P. Krukar1.2191111992LSep 20 · 22:35P. Krukar2.2061120K. Kostyk1.571111143LSep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski1.9011911113P. Krukar1.76311381WSep 20 · 20:05P. Krukar1.301111113W. Gluszek3.106760WSep 20 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.10661131P. Krukar1.6011118113LSep 20 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.6081111113P. Krukar2.20118821LSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113WSep 20 · 15:50P. Krukar1.541113113A. Eliasz2.2541160LSep 20 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.2011411113P. Krukar1.58311981LSep 19 · 23:45P. Krukar1.76911361P. Staniszewski1.9511911113
D. Kotwica10
WSep 20 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.889890D. Kotwica1.731111113LSep 20 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.27711611113D. Kotwica3.0911511392WSep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski1.70118111082D. Kotwica2.00511912113WSep 20 · 19:40D. Kotwica1.7151311113A. Eliasz2.001111881LSep 20 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.10661131P. Krukar1.6011118113WSep 20 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.831111123W. Gluszek1.8668100WSep 20 · 16:15K. Kostyk1.29971171D. Kotwica3.3011117113LSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.2011411113P. Krukar1.58311981WSep 19 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.90111113113W. Gluszek1.801361191
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