TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111161157111113
Roman Boklah
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 82.6% is still 82.6%
Graded at full timeRoman Boklah to win
82.6%
82.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Roman Boklah below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 93 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Roman Boklah at 82.6%
93 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 3–28 Roman Boklah Denis Aldayev has won 3 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Boklah
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-28 in 31
Boklah
Correct
gap of 25 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 971 vs Boklah 1146
Boklah
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 80% vs Boklah 60%
Aldayev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 70% vs Boklah 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev +4 · Boklah +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Boklah) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boklah form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 4.33 / Boklah 1.20
Signal prob.15% / 85%
Edge (Boklah)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13166372
Aldayev4.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 15 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back17% 6 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Boklah1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 56 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it78% 38 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev1wins
AwayBoklah9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBoklah leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayevn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBoklah87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev2Boklah8n = 10Boklah took 8 of 10
S2Aldayev1Boklah9n = 10Boklah took 9 of 10
S3Aldayev4Boklah6n = 10Boklah took 6 of 10
S4Aldayev2Boklah4n = 6Boklah took 4 of 6
S5Aldayev1Boklah2n = 3Boklah took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevBoklahA − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.839.7−6.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevBoklahBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 234 vs 256 / 60942.7%42%100 / 234 vs 256 / 609Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.735.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoklahAldayev 4.33/Boklah 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Boklah · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Boklah won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev49591113113R. Boklah42111131162
LJul 13 · 16:59D. Aldayev2310490R. Boklah341211113
LJul 13 · 16:00D. Aldayev227870R. Boklah331111113
LJul 4 · 11:00D. Aldayev42101161142R. Boklah44125115113
LJun 25 · 13:00D. Aldayev227960R. Boklah331111113
LApr 30 · 16:30D. Aldayev4511811872R. Boklah47711711113
LApr 12 · 12:00D. Aldayev27571141R. Boklah4211119113
LMar 25 · 15:00D. Aldayev227690R. Boklah331111113
LMar 19 · 18:34D. Aldayev4111610141R. Boklah4231112163
LMar 19 · 17:30D. Aldayev355512131R. Boklah47111110153
D. Aldayev10
LSep 21 · 14:00D. Aldayev1.834480V. Klymenko1.831111113WSep 19 · 10:30D. Aldayev2.38119711113Y. Priadko1.5391111662WSep 19 · 09:00D. Aldayev3.401121112133O. Kolos1.301311910112WSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev5.50591113113R. Boklah1.13111131162WSep 19 · 06:00D. Aldayev2.1011311113V. Klymenko1.67611211LSep 19 · 04:30D. Aldayev1.67117581V. Ivnytskyi2.1081111113WSep 14 · 17:19D. Aldayev1.91711711113Y. Priadko1.8011911942LSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161WSep 14 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.4081111113M. Bukata2.75118891LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441
R. Boklah10
WSep 21 · 12:00O. Kolos2.506119101R. Boklah1.5011511123WSep 20 · 17:09R. Boklah2.10711811103S. Priadko1.6711811582WSep 20 · 16:00S. Priadko1.571171461R. Boklah2.25131112113LSep 20 · 14:30V. Ziakun1.141111113R. Boklah5.007990LSep 20 · 12:00I. Torhachov1.4411911113R. Boklah2.63711981LSep 19 · 11:30R. Boklah1.40118101182V. Klymenko2.75611123113WSep 19 · 09:30Y. Priadko2.20641151R. Boklah1.6111115113LSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev5.50591113113R. Boklah1.13111131162WSep 19 · 06:30R. Boklah1.11711117113V. Ivnytskyi6.0011971152WSep 19 · 05:30O. Kolos2.6311913972R. Boklah1.448111111113
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