TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411117811811––
Anton Shypilov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Anton Shypilov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 56.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 29–28 Anton Shypilov Anton Shypilov has won 28 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-28 in 57
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1705 vs Shypilov 1530
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 100% vs Shypilov 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 100% vs Shypilov 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +10 · Shypilov +1
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.61 / Shypilov 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13166296
Kovalchuk1.61
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 162 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 108 of 147
Shypilov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 161 of 360
Down 0–1, comes back29% 57 of 195
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayShypilov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShypilov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk75%3 of 4
AwayShypilov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Shypilov6n = 10Shypilov took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk8Shypilov2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Shypilov6n = 10Shypilov took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk1Shypilov6n = 7Shypilov took 6 of 7
S5Kovalchuk2Shypilov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShypilovK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.0+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShypilovBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 754 vs 375 / 82352%45.6%392 / 754 vs 375 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.61/Shypilov 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 21 · 07:25N. Kovalchuk31411881A. Shypilov4011711113
WSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk4211119113A. Shypilov23351141
WSep 17 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk331111113A. Shypilov155550
WSep 16 · 21:45N. Kovalchuk51111487113A. Shypilov49812111172
LSep 15 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk33611971A. Shypilov3811511113
LAug 31 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk51121015862A. Shypilov5710121311113
LAug 26 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk48121111772A. Shypilov53148911113
LAug 25 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk226880A. Shypilov331111113
WAug 20 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk51713119113A. Shypilov43111161142
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 21 · 05:55N. Kovalchuk1.671111113O. Hura2.107870WSep 21 · 04:25N. Kovalchuk1.401111113O. Mitla2.758770WSep 20 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk1.831211113A. Kotyk1.8310870WSep 20 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk1.361151011113O. Mitla3.0031112762WSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk1.6111119113A. Shypilov2.20351141WSep 20 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk1.5771111113O. Napirko2.25111771WSep 20 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk1.61114118113R. Lazebnyi2.2071151162WSep 19 · 19:05O. Napirko2.2591191392N. Kovalchuk1.571151111113WSep 19 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk2.6371111113R. Lazebnyi1.44114661WSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113
A. Shypilov10
WSep 21 · 06:25V. Vlasenko1.671187101A. Shypilov2.1051111123LSep 21 · 04:55O. Hura1.571111113A. Shypilov2.258370LSep 20 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.10491441O. Napirko1.67111112113WSep 20 · 09:35A. Kotyk1.3321111472A. Shypilov3.25119711113LSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk1.6111119113A. Shypilov2.20351141WSep 20 · 06:35A. Shypilov3.25116138113R. Lazebnyi1.33611111172WSep 20 · 05:35O. Mitla1.837870A. Shypilov1.831111113LSep 19 · 18:05A. Shypilov1.73811991V. Boyko2.0011711113WSep 19 · 16:35A. Shypilov1.91111410793V. Vlasenko1.80712121162WSep 19 · 15:05A. Shypilov2.1081111123O. Napirko1.671197101
Upcoming Matches
N. Kovalchuk
A. Shypilov
Nothing scheduled
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