TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117117––––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 70.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 34–14 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 14 of their 48 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 19h before this match
Kovalchuk beat Mitla 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:08What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-14 in 48
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 20 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1709 vs Mitla 1517
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 100% vs Mitla 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Mitla 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +8 · Mitla +1
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.40 / Mitla 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166178
Kovalchuk1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 159 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 105 of 144
Mitla2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 124 of 318
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayMitla3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%7 of 7
AwayMitla100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk7Mitla3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk4Mitla6n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk5Mitla1n = 6Kovalchuk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMitlaK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.332.9+4.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 751 vs 346 / 79851.9%43.4%390 / 751 vs 346 / 798Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.40/Mitla 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk481151011113O. Mitla3931112762
LSep 18 · 24:15N. Kovalchuk31511871O. Mitla4111811113
LSep 16 · 20:45N. Kovalchuk32141170O. Mitla401613113
WSep 16 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Mitla236980
WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk3711411113O. Mitla26611451
WAug 27 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk4011711113O. Mitla24411631
WAug 24 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk4111117123O. Mitla347611101
LAug 20 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk2781180O. Mitla351113113
WAug 17 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk361114113O. Mitla2471250
WAug 5 · 21:45N. Kovalchuk4811179113O. Mitla438151191
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 21 · 05:55N. Kovalchuk1.671111113O. Hura2.107870WSep 20 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk1.831211113A. Kotyk1.8310870WSep 20 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk1.361151011113O. Mitla3.0031112762WSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk1.6111119113A. Shypilov2.20351141WSep 20 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk1.5771111113O. Napirko2.25111771WSep 20 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk1.61114118113R. Lazebnyi2.2071151162WSep 19 · 19:05O. Napirko2.2591191392N. Kovalchuk1.571151111113WSep 19 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk2.6371111113R. Lazebnyi1.44114661WSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113LSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891
O. Mitla10
WSep 21 · 05:25V. Vlasenko1.9161751272O. Mitla1.8011151110113WSep 20 · 11:05O. Mitla2.75911156113R. Lazebnyi1.40117131182LSep 20 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk1.361151011113O. Mitla3.0031112762LSep 20 · 08:05O. Mitla3.25136371O. Napirko1.33111111113WSep 20 · 07:05A. Kotyk1.3381020O. Mitla3.251112113LSep 20 · 05:35O. Mitla1.837870A. Shypilov1.831111113WSep 18 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83118111472O. Mitla1.837111312113LSep 18 · 01:15O. Mitla2.757118101R. Lazebnyi1.4011611123WSep 18 · 24:15O. Mitla3.2511811113N. Kovalchuk1.33511871LSep 17 · 22:45O. Mitla1.8011610101V. Vlasenko1.9191112123
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