TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118117––––
Orest Hura
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 59.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 15–12 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-12 in 27
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1716 vs Hura 1531
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 100% vs Hura 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 90% vs Hura 10%
Kovalchuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +9 · Hura +1
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.67 / Hura 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166642
Kovalchuk1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 162 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 108 of 147
Hura2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 37 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk8wins
AwayHura2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%6 of 6
AwayHura50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Hura4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk4Hura6n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk8Hura2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Hura4n = 7Hura took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk4Hura0n = 4Kovalchuk took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukHuraK − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.0+4.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 752 vs 406 / 78052%52.1%391 / 752 vs 406 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.67/Hura 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk51711913113O. Hura45114111182
WSep 8 · 09:55N. Kovalchuk521115114113O. Hura4851771182
WAug 25 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Hura238960
LAug 6 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk315101151O. Hura4311129113
WAug 1 · 15:35N. Kovalchuk50127119113O. Hura47101171182
WJul 31 · 22:30N. Kovalchuk47121211123O. Hura3710143101
WJul 26 · 08:05N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Hura217950
WJul 25 · 13:05N. Kovalchuk4011711113O. Hura26611541
LJul 25 · 01:00N. Kovalchuk237790O. Hura331111113
WJul 5 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk521012118113O. Hura47121051192
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 21 · 04:25N. Kovalchuk1.401111113O. Mitla2.758770WSep 20 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk1.831211113A. Kotyk1.8310870WSep 20 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk1.361151011113O. Mitla3.0031112762WSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk1.6111119113A. Shypilov2.20351141WSep 20 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk1.5771111113O. Napirko2.25111771WSep 20 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk1.61114118113R. Lazebnyi2.2071151162WSep 19 · 19:05O. Napirko2.2591191392N. Kovalchuk1.571151111113WSep 19 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk2.6371111113R. Lazebnyi1.44114661WSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113LSep 19 · 13:35A. Shypilov2.1011911103N. Kovalchuk1.67711891
O. Hura10
WSep 21 · 04:55O. Hura1.571111113A. Shypilov2.258370LSep 19 · 11:35O. Hura1.83661181R. Haiseniuk1.8311114103LSep 19 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.1481111113O. Hura5.00115941LSep 19 · 07:35O. Bindas1.13781111113O. Hura5.5011112412LSep 19 · 06:35O. Hura2.63911681D. Shcherbak1.4411711113LSep 19 · 05:35S. Rak1.251111113O. Hura3.756560LSep 18 · 18:35R. Haiseniuk1.8010121210113O. Hura1.911210101292LSep 18 · 17:35D. Shcherbak1.671111113O. Hura2.108780LSep 18 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.251111113O. Hura3.757750LSep 18 · 14:05Y. Kravets1.3071111113O. Hura3.05119251
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