TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148401
Played Sep 18Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117115––––
Orest Hura
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 77.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 2–1 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1803 vs Hura 1574
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 229 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 100% vs Hura 20%
Kozachuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 70% vs Hura 50%
Kozachuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +5 · Hura -2
Kozachuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.25 / Hura 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13148401
Kozachuk1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 106 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it82% 81 of 99
Hura3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 37 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKozachuk2wins
AwayHura1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKozachuk leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayHuran = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk3Hura0n = 3Kozachuk took 3 of 3
S2Kozachuk2Hura1n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
S3Kozachuk2Hura1n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKozachukHuraK − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match41.031.3+9.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime548 / 1098 vs 413 / 78249.9%52.8%548 / 1098 vs 413 / 782Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.25/Hura 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk4211119113O. Hura29571161
WNov 16 · 09:05I. Kozachuk331111113O. Hura175660
LNov 7 · 01:30I. Kozachuk481151110112O. Hura48911312133
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 19 · 10:35O. Bindas1.5361360I. Kozachuk2.381115113WSep 19 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.1481111113O. Hura5.00115941WSep 19 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7351111113D. Shcherbak2.00115391LSep 19 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.388760S. Rak1.531111113WSep 19 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.3051112123R. Haiseniuk3.4011310101LSep 18 · 18:05O. Bindas1.504111173I. Kozachuk2.50119921LSep 18 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.6171950Y. Kravets2.201121113WSep 18 · 14:35I. Kozachuk1.33712511113R. Haiseniuk3.25111011562WSep 18 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.801211113D. Shcherbak1.9110380WSep 18 · 02:00S. Rak1.531110161072I. Kozachuk2.388121412113
O. Hura10
LSep 19 · 11:35O. Hura1.83661181R. Haiseniuk1.8311114103LSep 19 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.1481111113O. Hura5.00115941LSep 19 · 07:35O. Bindas1.13781111113O. Hura5.5011112412LSep 19 · 06:35O. Hura2.63911681D. Shcherbak1.4411711113LSep 19 · 05:35S. Rak1.251111113O. Hura3.756560LSep 18 · 18:35R. Haiseniuk1.8010121210113O. Hura1.911210101292LSep 18 · 17:35D. Shcherbak1.671111113O. Hura2.108780LSep 18 · 14:05Y. Kravets1.3071111113O. Hura3.05119251LSep 18 · 12:05O. Bindas1.1471111113O. Hura5.00119371WSep 17 · 02:45O. Hura1.80118113133R. Lazebnyi1.91711511112
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