TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Jakub Simecek
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111171161210––
Richard Skacelik
Away
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Simecek to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simecek above · Richard Skacelik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 72 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Simecek at 61.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simecek 12–5 Richard Skacelik Richard Skacelik has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Skacelik beat Simecek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Simecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Simecek
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simecek 1630 vs Skacelik 1610
Simecek
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simecek 80% vs Skacelik 40%
Simecek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simecek 60% vs Skacelik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simecek +2 · Skacelik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Simecek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimecek 1.52 / Skacelik 2.35
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Simecek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13164339
Simecek1.52
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 71 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it69% 47 of 68
Skacelik2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 78 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back28% 24 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimecek7wins
AwaySkacelik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSimecek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimecek85.7%6 of 7
AwaySkacelik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simecek7Skacelik3n = 10Simecek took 7 of 10
S2Simecek8Skacelik2n = 10Simecek took 8 of 10
S3Simecek4Skacelik6n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S4Simecek3Skacelik3n = 6split evenly
S5Simecek2Skacelik1n = 3Simecek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimecekSkacelikSimecek − SkacelikBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.1+2.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimecekSkacelikBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 277 vs 225 / 46753.4%48.2%148 / 277 vs 225 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimecekSimecek 1.52/Skacelik 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Simecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Simecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 10:00J. Simecek25911321R. Skacelik3811511113
WAug 15 · 19:30J. Simecek44111111113R. Skacelik33471391
WAug 7 · 10:00J. Simecek331111113R. Skacelik257990
WAug 6 · 10:00J. Simecek331111113R. Skacelik248880
LAug 2 · 17:29J. Simecek6024118892R. Skacelik642291111113
WAug 2 · 16:30J. Simecek4411138123R. Skacelik3751111101
WJul 24 · 10:00J. Simecek494121012113R. Skacelik481110121052
WJul 11 · 19:00J. Simecek42136111113R. Skacelik50111181192
WJul 11 · 14:30J. Simecek331111113R. Skacelik156450
LJun 29 · 06:30J. Simecek31911110R. Skacelik371113133
J. Simecek10
WSep 20 · 12:00J. Simecek1.731112113D. Langer2.0091090WSep 20 · 11:30J. Levicky2.38115781J. Simecek1.5351111113LSep 20 · 10:00J. Simecek1.44911321R. Skacelik2.6311511113WSep 19 · 09:30A. Walek1.90111171192J. Simecek1.80913117113WSep 19 · 08:00J. Simecek1.61141256113D. Langer2.201210111142LSep 19 · 07:30S. Byrtus2.631112133J. Simecek1.44810110WSep 19 · 06:00J. Simecek1.8011812113A. Walek1.919111071WSep 3 · 16:58D. Unzeitig1.91121181342J. Simecek1.801421111113LSep 3 · 16:30J. Simecek1.80111013101D. Unzeitig1.9191215123LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simecek2.3898110T. Kypr1.531111133
R. Skacelik10
WSep 20 · 12:30R. Skacelik1.501111113J. Levicky2.404870LSep 20 · 11:00R. Skacelik1.807470D. Langer1.901111113WSep 20 · 10:00J. Simecek1.44911321R. Skacelik2.6311511113LSep 20 · 09:29R. Vavrecka2.2041111143R. Skacelik1.611157121LSep 20 · 08:00J. Schwan1.8311811123R. Skacelik1.837118101WSep 20 · 07:00J. Levicky2.5012480R. Skacelik1.501411113WSep 20 · 06:30R. Skacelik1.67111184113R. Vavrecka2.1037111182LSep 18 · 08:58R. Skacelik1.7321270D. Heczko2.001114113LSep 18 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.6710114131D. Heczko2.1012611153WSep 18 · 07:30J. Levicky2.5011851152R. Skacelik1.50711118113
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