TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Mateusz Zagajewski
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711119117––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
116711119117––
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 17–7 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (58%)
Zagajewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-7 in 24
Zagajewski
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1378 vs Lukaszewski 1404
Lukaszewski
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 40% vs Lukaszewski 100%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 60% vs Lukaszewski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski -2 · Lukaszewski +5
Lukaszewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Zagajewski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.62 / Lukaszewski 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Zagajewski)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13161301
Zagajewski1.62
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 33 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Lukaszewski2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 257 of 631
Down 0–1, comes back14% 48 of 346
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZagajewski8wins
AwayLukaszewski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZagajewski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZagajewski88.9%8 of 9
AwayLukaszewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski9Lukaszewski1n = 10Zagajewski took 9 of 10
S2Zagajewski4Lukaszewski6n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S3Zagajewski7Lukaszewski3n = 10Zagajewski took 7 of 10
S4Zagajewski3Lukaszewski2n = 5Zagajewski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZagajewskiLukaszewskiZ − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.131.7+6.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 730 vs 906 / 199249.5%45.5%361 / 730 vs 906 / 1992Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiZagajewski 1.62/Lukaszewski 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 07:15M. Zagajewski4011711113M. Lukaszewski33611971
LMar 12 · 04:50M. Zagajewski156540M. Lukaszewski331111113
WMar 6 · 10:25M. Zagajewski341111123M. Lukaszewski2165100
WFeb 19 · 11:30M. Zagajewski331111113M. Lukaszewski186480
WFeb 12 · 11:10M. Zagajewski331111113M. Lukaszewski153660
WJan 23 · 08:05M. Zagajewski331111113M. Lukaszewski206770
WNov 27 · 14:05M. Zagajewski49118811113M. Lukaszewski4271111762
WNov 27 · 07:05M. Zagajewski52171311113M. Lukaszewski411515471
WNov 7 · 08:45M. Zagajewski5911111115113M. Lukaszewski5091351762
LOct 9 · 10:35M. Zagajewski33135871M. Lukaszewski44111111113
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 20 · 06:00I. Dabrowski1.8751111113M. Zagajewski1.83114471LSep 20 · 04:50M. Misiak1.8011116113M. Zagajewski1.90961181WSep 20 · 03:20P. Staniszewski2.2573111262M. Zagajewski1.541111310113LSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171WSep 11 · 13:30M. Zagajewski1.9511711113B. Czerwinski1.75811681LSep 11 · 12:15B. Mleczko1.6912111111143M. Zagajewski1.96147713122WSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123WSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:10M. Zagajewski1.528111011113B. Wisniewski2.3711812992WSep 11 · 06:30M. Trela1.857101181M. Zagajewski1.8011128113
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 20 · 08:05M. Misiak1.6077111172M. Lukaszewski2.10111159113WSep 20 · 05:15P. Staniszewski1.857711111M. Lukaszewski1.8011119133WSep 20 · 04:25I. Dabrowski1.85711121142M. Lukaszewski1.80116146113WSep 20 · 03:00K. Kufel1.408580M. Lukaszewski2.751111113WSep 19 · 01:30M. Woskowicz1.671115891M. Lukaszewski2.1061711113WSep 18 · 23:55P. Blocho1.40111171162M. Lukaszewski2.75137116113LSep 18 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.2011118113M. Lukaszewski4.33461161LSep 18 · 22:30B. Sulkowski1.6711127113M. Lukaszewski2.105101171LSep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek1.281310711113M. Lukaszewski3.50111211462LSep 17 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.22671111113M. Lukaszewski4.0011118352
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