TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
1.60
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711711115119711
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Misiak to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
711711115119711
H2H Mateusz Misiak 30–6 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 6 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Misiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-6 in 36
Misiak
Wrong
gap of 24 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1319 vs Lukaszewski 1395
Lukaszewski
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 20% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 20% vs Lukaszewski 50%
Lukaszewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak -2 · Lukaszewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Misiak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.60 / Lukaszewski 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Misiak)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13161293
Misiak1.60
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 189 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it97% 114 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it81% 153 of 188
Lukaszewski2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 257 of 631
Down 0–1, comes back14% 48 of 346
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMisiak9wins
AwayLukaszewski1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMisiak leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak100%9 of 9
AwayLukaszewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak9Lukaszewski1n = 10Misiak took 9 of 10
S2Misiak7Lukaszewski3n = 10Misiak took 7 of 10
S3Misiak7Lukaszewski3n = 10Misiak took 7 of 10
S4Misiak4Lukaszewski1n = 5Misiak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMisiakLukaszewskiM − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.624.4+12.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1021 / 1928 vs 905 / 199153%45.5%1021 / 1928 vs 905 / 1991Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MisiakMisiak 1.60/Lukaszewski 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.6%
Misiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak331111113M. Lukaszewski164840
WSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak4211119113M. Lukaszewski27771121
WAug 21 · 08:10M. Misiak331111113M. Lukaszewski154470
WJul 19 · 09:25M. Misiak44111111113M. Lukaszewski30513751
WJan 19 · 01:15M. Misiak331111113M. Lukaszewski162860
WJan 18 · 22:50M. Misiak44113811113M. Lukaszewski3781111162
WJan 8 · 18:45M. Misiak331111113M. Lukaszewski143650
WDec 29 · 02:30M. Misiak4311119123M. Lukaszewski315511101
LDec 29 · 24:00M. Misiak285111111M. Lukaszewski4311138113
WDec 8 · 01:40M. Misiak331111113M. Lukaszewski154380
M. Misiak10
LSep 20 · 06:25P. Staniszewski2.1011811113M. Misiak1.60411881LSep 20 · 05:35K. Kufel1.66514119123M. Misiak2.101112711102WSep 20 · 04:50M. Misiak1.8011116113M. Zagajewski1.90961181LSep 20 · 03:40M. Misiak1.80961161I. Dabrowski1.9011119113LSep 11 · 14:20M. Misiak2.05714841B. Czerwinski1.65111211113LSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:50B. Sulkowski1.9211411113M. Misiak1.73811861LSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123WSep 11 · 09:50M. Misiak1.95116411133B. Mleczko1.74911117112LSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 20 · 07:15M. Zagajewski1.6211711113M. Lukaszewski2.20611971WSep 20 · 05:15P. Staniszewski1.857711111M. Lukaszewski1.8011119133WSep 20 · 04:25I. Dabrowski1.85711121142M. Lukaszewski1.80116146113WSep 20 · 03:00K. Kufel1.408580M. Lukaszewski2.751111113WSep 19 · 01:30M. Woskowicz1.671115891M. Lukaszewski2.1061711113WSep 18 · 23:55P. Blocho1.40111171162M. Lukaszewski2.75137116113LSep 18 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.2011118113M. Lukaszewski4.33461161LSep 18 · 22:30B. Sulkowski1.6711127113M. Lukaszewski2.105101171LSep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek1.281310711113M. Lukaszewski3.50111211462LSep 17 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.22671111113M. Lukaszewski4.0011118352
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