TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Dmytro Tsys
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1195115111012––
Petr Kolesnik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Tsys to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Tsys above · Petr Kolesnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 74 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Dmytro Tsys at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Tsys 16–18 Petr Kolesnik Dmytro Tsys has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Kolesnik beat Tsys 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:49What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolesnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-18 in 34
Kolesnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tsys 1545 vs Kolesnik 1563
Kolesnik
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tsys 20% vs Kolesnik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tsys 50% vs Kolesnik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tsys -4 · Kolesnik -1
Tsys
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tsys)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolesnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTsys 1.83 / Kolesnik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tsys)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161246
Tsys1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kolesnik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTsys6wins
AwayKolesnik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTsys leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTsys50%3 of 6
AwayKolesnik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tsys6Kolesnik4n = 10Tsys took 6 of 10
S2Tsys3Kolesnik7n = 10Kolesnik took 7 of 10
S3Tsys6Kolesnik4n = 10Tsys took 6 of 10
S4Tsys2Kolesnik6n = 8Kolesnik took 6 of 8
S5Tsys4Kolesnik0n = 4Tsys took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTsysKolesnikT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.3−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTsysKolesnikBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 239 vs 182 / 32750.6%55.7%121 / 239 vs 182 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TsysTsys 1.83/Kolesnik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tsys · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolesnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 16:30D. Tsys27113581P. Kolesnik4181111113
WAug 22 · 08:00D. Tsys4181111113P. Kolesnik33119761
WAug 21 · 06:30D. Tsys46611117113P. Kolesnik4711981182
LAug 20 · 17:08D. Tsys174670P. Kolesnik331111113
WAug 20 · 13:00D. Tsys341211113P. Kolesnik2310760
WAug 14 · 15:00D. Tsys46761111113P. Kolesnik3811113762
LJul 16 · 06:30D. Tsys4011415101P. Kolesnik4661117123
WJul 15 · 13:00D. Tsys44117114113P. Kolesnik4391181142
LJul 11 · 05:00D. Tsys431710971P. Kolesnik49151211113
WJul 10 · 15:30D. Tsys46124116133P. Kolesnik501011711112
D. Tsys10
LSep 19 · 17:04I. Dubinin2.7511911113D. Tsys1.40611661LSep 19 · 16:30P. Kolesnik2.0081111113D. Tsys1.73113581LSep 19 · 15:00D. Tsys1.2881111762I. Dubinin3.5011751193LSep 19 · 13:30D. Tsys1.91841151M. Levytskii1.801111773WSep 19 · 12:00D. Tsys2.00991111113O. Torianyk1.7311119762WSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 09:30N. Priadko2.759290D. Tsys1.401111113LSep 5 · 08:00D. Tsys1.444111071S. Sideltsev2.6311512113WSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:00D. Tsys2.0071111113O. Torianyk1.73116951
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 19 · 17:35M. Levytskii1.50118118113P. Kolesnik2.50911811102WSep 19 · 16:30P. Kolesnik2.0081111113D. Tsys1.73113581LSep 19 · 15:30P. Kolesnik2.5011611842M. Levytskii1.50611911113WSep 19 · 14:00P. Kolesnik1.36111112I. Dubinin3.007510LSep 19 · 13:00P. Kolesnik2.6391111962O. Torianyk1.44118711113LSep 13 · 10:39P. Kolesnik1.831181051O. Tiutiunnyk1.8371112113WSep 13 · 09:00O. Torianyk1.40117881P. Kolesnik2.7571111113WSep 13 · 07:30S. Bului1.4041111882P. Kolesnik2.75117711113WSep 13 · 06:00M. Levytskii1.50116641P. Kolesnik2.5061111113LSep 13 · 05:00O. Tiutiunnyk2.201111133P. Kolesnik1.6189110
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