TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13160517
Played Sep 19Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116911116116––
Dmytro Tsys
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Dmytro Tsys below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6
71 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 4–5 Dmytro Tsys Ihor Dubinin has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Dubinin beat Tsys 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Tsys)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tsys form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 2.75 / Tsys 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Tsys)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13160517
Dubinin2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 36 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Tsys1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 38 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeDubinin4wins
AwayTsys5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderTsys leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin100%4 of 4
AwayTsys100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin4Tsys5n = 9Tsys took 5 of 9
S2Dubinin4Tsys5n = 9Tsys took 5 of 9
S3Dubinin3Tsys6n = 9Tsys took 6 of 9
S4Dubinin3Tsys4n = 7Tsys took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricDubininTsysD − TBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match35.940.4−4.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininTsysBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 445 vs 121 / 23850.1%50.8%223 / 445 vs 121 / 238Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TsysDubinin 2.75/Tsys 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Tsys · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2468100D. Tsys341111123
LJul 31 · 13:30I. Dubinin3831111852D. Tsys47116811113
WJul 10 · 17:39I. Dubinin4011117113D. Tsys34961181
LJul 10 · 13:30I. Dubinin1710430D. Tsys341211113
LJul 3 · 13:30I. Dubinin32711591D. Tsys4211911113
WApr 25 · 17:44I. Dubinin44111111113D. Tsys32591351
WApr 25 · 13:30I. Dubinin58128207113D. Tsys571011181172
LJan 6 · 13:00I. Dubinin345811101D. Tsys4311119123
I. Dubinin10
WSep 19 · 16:00I. Dubinin3.5011119113O. Torianyk1.28971141WSep 19 · 15:00D. Tsys1.2881111762I. Dubinin3.5011751193LSep 19 · 14:00P. Kolesnik1.36111112I. Dubinin3.007510LSep 19 · 12:30M. Levytskii1.22101111193I. Dubinin4.001268171LSep 17 · 17:13R. Hryhoriev1.73111111113I. Dubinin2.00881331LSep 17 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40117411123I. Dubinin2.75411118102LSep 17 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.7351151192R. Hryhoriev2.00118116113WSep 17 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.101111113N. Priadko1.676590LSep 17 · 12:00I. Dubinin1.736131191P. Shulhachyk2.0011159113LSep 10 · 17:10R. Hryhoriev1.85971116113I. Dubinin1.85111171492
D. Tsys10
LSep 19 · 16:30P. Kolesnik2.0081111113D. Tsys1.73113581LSep 19 · 15:00D. Tsys1.2881111762I. Dubinin3.5011751193LSep 19 · 13:30D. Tsys1.91841151M. Levytskii1.801111773WSep 19 · 12:00D. Tsys2.00991111113O. Torianyk1.7311119762WSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 09:30N. Priadko2.759290D. Tsys1.401111113LSep 5 · 08:00D. Tsys1.444111071S. Sideltsev2.6311512113WSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:00D. Tsys2.0071111113O. Torianyk1.73116951WSep 4 · 17:35D. Tsys1.221211113M. Pohorilyi4.0010590
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