TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611311––––
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.74
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
911611311––––
H2H Piotr Maruszak 6–6 Mateusz Zagajewski Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:48What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Zagajewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1320 vs Zagajewski 1333
Zagajewski
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 40% vs Zagajewski 20%
Maruszak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 30% vs Zagajewski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak -1 · Zagajewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zagajewski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zagajewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 1.95 / Zagajewski 1.74
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Zagajewski)+1.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13160247
Maruszak1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 21 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Zagajewski1.74
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 33 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaruszak6wins
AwayZagajewski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaruszak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaruszak100%5 of 5
AwayZagajewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maruszak5Zagajewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Maruszak7Zagajewski3n = 10Maruszak took 7 of 10
S3Maruszak6Zagajewski4n = 10Maruszak took 6 of 10
S4Maruszak4Zagajewski3n = 7Maruszak took 4 of 7
S5Maruszak1Zagajewski2n = 3Zagajewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaruszakZagajewskiM − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.9+1.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 511 vs 362 / 73547%49.3%240 / 511 vs 362 / 735Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiMaruszak 1.95/Zagajewski 1.74
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 10:05P. Maruszak4211911113M. Zagajewski29211791
LAug 2 · 05:35P. Maruszak4161181332M. Zagajewski531191111113
WMay 15 · 15:25P. Maruszak45911113113M. Zagajewski3811661142
WMay 1 · 13:05P. Maruszak331111113M. Zagajewski247890
LMay 1 · 03:25P. Maruszak35871191M. Zagajewski4011117113
LApr 10 · 20:05P. Maruszak2073100M. Zagajewski341111123
LJan 2 · 10:00P. Maruszak4381111492M. Zagajewski44113811113
WDec 12 · 12:00P. Maruszak331111113M. Zagajewski239860
WOct 17 · 11:25P. Maruszak3911116113M. Zagajewski31881141
WOct 2 · 16:55P. Maruszak3711114113M. Zagajewski33681181
P. Maruszak10
LSep 20 · 12:35P. Maruszak2.25561131K. Kufel1.5411115113WSep 20 · 11:20P. Maruszak1.751111133M. Lukaszewski1.9547110WSep 20 · 10:05I. Dabrowski1.86751181P. Maruszak1.8311118113LSep 20 · 09:20P. Maruszak1.8591161162M. Misiak1.85117116113LSep 20 · 24:10M. Woskowicz1.8311611113P. Maruszak1.83911451LSep 19 · 23:45P. Maruszak1.913530A. Pilch1.801111113LSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113WSep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.8311133113B. Sulkowski1.838111181LSep 19 · 19:40A. Wos1.44121156113P. Maruszak2.63106111162LSep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski1.8311117113P. Maruszak1.83981151
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 20 · 13:00I. Dabrowski1.78711911113M. Zagajewski1.9111611472WSep 20 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.9011511113M. Misiak1.80511681LSep 20 · 10:30M. Zagajewski1.7069110M. Lukaszewski2.001111133LSep 20 · 09:45K. Kufel1.7761111123M. Zagajewski1.951176101LSep 20 · 08:30K. Kufel1.801111123M. Zagajewski1.8578100WSep 20 · 07:15M. Zagajewski1.6211711113M. Lukaszewski2.20611971LSep 20 · 06:00I. Dabrowski1.8751111113M. Zagajewski1.83114471LSep 20 · 04:50M. Misiak1.8011116113M. Zagajewski1.90961181WSep 20 · 03:20P. Staniszewski2.2573111262M. Zagajewski1.541111310113LSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171
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