TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Igor Dabrowski
Home
1.78
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116911114117
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIgor Dabrowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
711116911114117
H2H Igor Dabrowski 31–34 Mateusz Zagajewski Igor Dabrowski has won 31 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Dabrowski beat Zagajewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Dabrowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-34 in 65
Zagajewski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dabrowski 1401 vs Zagajewski 1342
Dabrowski
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dabrowski 60% vs Zagajewski 40%
Dabrowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dabrowski 60% vs Zagajewski 40%
Dabrowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dabrowski +1 · Zagajewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dabrowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zagajewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDabrowski 1.78 / Zagajewski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dabrowski)+2.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13163101
Dabrowski1.78
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 191 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it98% 87 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it76% 145 of 190
Zagajewski1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDabrowski6wins
AwayZagajewski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDabrowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDabrowski80%4 of 5
AwayZagajewski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dabrowski5Zagajewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Dabrowski6Zagajewski4n = 10Dabrowski took 6 of 10
S3Dabrowski5Zagajewski5n = 10split evenly
S4Dabrowski7Zagajewski3n = 10Dabrowski took 7 of 10
S5Dabrowski1Zagajewski2n = 3Zagajewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDabrowskiZagajewskiD − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.237.8+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDabrowskiZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime806 / 1598 vs 362 / 73450.4%49.3%806 / 1598 vs 362 / 734Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DabrowskiDabrowski 1.78/Zagajewski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dabrowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dabrowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 06:00I. Dabrowski3851111113M. Zagajewski26114471
LSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski4251271172M. Zagajewski511110118113
LSep 6 · 08:30I. Dabrowski317111121M. Zagajewski4211137113
WAug 30 · 13:00I. Dabrowski4011117113M. Zagajewski31571181
WAug 30 · 06:50I. Dabrowski44111111113M. Zagajewski36781381
LJun 21 · 10:05I. Dabrowski30117571M. Zagajewski3961111113
WJun 21 · 06:50I. Dabrowski4011711113M. Zagajewski30611581
LMay 15 · 10:10I. Dabrowski3981111542M. Zagajewski47117711113
WMay 15 · 05:40I. Dabrowski3911115123M. Zagajewski326511101
WMay 8 · 10:10I. Dabrowski49971111113M. Zagajewski4411114992
I. Dabrowski10
WSep 20 · 11:45I. Dabrowski2.251111611153K. Kufel1.54138119132LSep 20 · 10:05I. Dabrowski1.86751181P. Maruszak1.8311118113WSep 20 · 09:00I. Dabrowski1.63131367113M. Lukaszewski2.151111111152LSep 20 · 07:40P. Staniszewski2.00111179113I. Dabrowski1.7076111182WSep 20 · 06:50K. Kufel1.8061150I. Dabrowski1.911113113WSep 20 · 06:00I. Dabrowski1.8751111113M. Zagajewski1.83114471LSep 20 · 04:25I. Dabrowski1.85711121142M. Lukaszewski1.80116146113WSep 20 · 03:40M. Misiak1.80961161I. Dabrowski1.9011119113WSep 19 · 07:40W. Gronowski1.908111191I. Dabrowski1.7511813113LSep 19 · 06:50M. Minda1.57111110143I. Dabrowski2.258712121
M. Zagajewski10
WSep 20 · 13:50P. Maruszak1.959630M. Zagajewski1.741111113WSep 20 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.9011511113M. Misiak1.80511681LSep 20 · 10:30M. Zagajewski1.7069110M. Lukaszewski2.001111133LSep 20 · 09:45K. Kufel1.7761111123M. Zagajewski1.951176101LSep 20 · 08:30K. Kufel1.801111123M. Zagajewski1.8578100WSep 20 · 07:15M. Zagajewski1.6211711113M. Lukaszewski2.20611971LSep 20 · 06:00I. Dabrowski1.8751111113M. Zagajewski1.83114471LSep 20 · 04:50M. Misiak1.8011116113M. Zagajewski1.90961181WSep 20 · 03:20P. Staniszewski2.2573111262M. Zagajewski1.541111310113LSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171
Upcoming Matches
I. Dabrowski
M. Zagajewski
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