TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Mateusz Zagajewski
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115511116118––
Mateusz Misiak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:58 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
115511116118––
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 3–4 Mateusz Misiak Mateusz Zagajewski has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Misiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1330 vs Misiak 1312
Zagajewski
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 20% vs Misiak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 30% vs Misiak 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski -3 · Misiak -1
Zagajewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zagajewski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.90 / Misiak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zagajewski)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13162315
Zagajewski1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Misiak1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 189 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it97% 114 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it81% 153 of 188
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZagajewski3wins
AwayMisiak4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMisiak leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZagajewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMisiak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski2Misiak5n = 7Misiak took 5 of 7
S2Zagajewski2Misiak5n = 7Misiak took 5 of 7
S3Zagajewski2Misiak5n = 7Misiak took 5 of 7
S4Zagajewski3Misiak2n = 5Zagajewski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricZagajewskiMisiakZ − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match36.740.9−4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiMisiakBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 733 vs 1022 / 193149.3%52.9%361 / 733 vs 1022 / 1931Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiZagajewski 1.90/Misiak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 20 · 04:50M. Zagajewski34961181M. Misiak3911116113
WSep 11 · 11:00M. Zagajewski4391111123M. Misiak331166101
LSep 11 · 05:40M. Zagajewski381014771M. Misiak46121211113
LJun 21 · 11:45M. Zagajewski154470M. Misiak331111113
WJun 21 · 04:25M. Zagajewski51125911143M. Misiak521011118122
WMay 15 · 10:35M. Zagajewski51118812123M. Misiak508111110102
LJan 23 · 06:55M. Zagajewski257990M. Misiak331111113
M. Zagajewski10
WSep 20 · 13:50P. Maruszak1.959630M. Zagajewski1.741111113LSep 20 · 13:00I. Dabrowski1.78711911113M. Zagajewski1.9111611472LSep 20 · 10:30M. Zagajewski1.7069110M. Lukaszewski2.001111133LSep 20 · 09:45K. Kufel1.7761111123M. Zagajewski1.951176101LSep 20 · 08:30K. Kufel1.801111123M. Zagajewski1.8578100WSep 20 · 07:15M. Zagajewski1.6211711113M. Lukaszewski2.20611971LSep 20 · 06:00I. Dabrowski1.8751111113M. Zagajewski1.83114471LSep 20 · 04:50M. Misiak1.8011116113M. Zagajewski1.90961181WSep 20 · 03:20P. Staniszewski2.2573111262M. Zagajewski1.541111310113LSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171
M. Misiak10
WSep 20 · 13:25M. Misiak1.601111113M. Lukaszewski2.108340LSep 20 · 10:55K. Kufel1.801211113M. Misiak1.9010770WSep 20 · 09:20P. Maruszak1.8591161162M. Misiak1.85117116113LSep 20 · 08:05M. Misiak1.6077111172M. Lukaszewski2.10111159113LSep 20 · 06:25P. Staniszewski2.1011811113M. Misiak1.60411881LSep 20 · 05:35K. Kufel1.66514119123M. Misiak2.101112711102WSep 20 · 04:50M. Misiak1.8011116113M. Zagajewski1.90961181LSep 20 · 03:40M. Misiak1.80961161I. Dabrowski1.9011119113LSep 11 · 14:20M. Misiak2.05714841B. Czerwinski1.65111211113LSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150
Upcoming Matches
M. Zagajewski
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M. Misiak
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