TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Gracjan Kesik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117911119711
Radoslaw Chrzescian
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadoslaw Chrzescian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGracjan Kesik above · Radoslaw Chrzescian below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Radoslaw Chrzescian at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Gracjan Kesik 2–1 Radoslaw Chrzescian Radoslaw Chrzescian has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Chrzescian beat Kesik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chrzescian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1488 vs Chrzescian 1688
Chrzescian
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 20% vs Chrzescian 100%
Chrzescian
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 30% vs Chrzescian 90%
Chrzescian
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik -2 · Chrzescian +5
Chrzescian
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chrzescian)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chrzescian form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 1.91 / Chrzescian 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chrzescian)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13159660
Kesik1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 57 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back34% 23 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Chrzescian1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite77% won 67 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKesik2wins
AwayChrzescian1wins
Kesik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik2Chrzescian1n = 3Kesik took 2 of 3
S2Kesik2Chrzescian1n = 3Kesik took 2 of 3
S3Kesik2Chrzescian1n = 3Kesik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKesikChrzescianK − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.332.3+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikChrzescianBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 606 vs 188 / 35553.6%53%325 / 606 vs 188 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChrzescianKesik 1.91/Chrzescian 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chrzescian · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chrzescian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 20 · 08:30G. Kesik389101181R. Chrzescian4311129113
WMay 3 · 14:15G. Kesik331111113R. Chrzescian258980
WApr 19 · 10:30G. Kesik4111118113R. Chrzescian29481161
G. Kesik10
LSep 20 · 08:30G. Kesik2.209101181R. Chrzescian1.6111129113LSep 20 · 06:55G. Kesik3.003710G. Poliniewicz1.361111113WSep 20 · 05:40G. Kesik1.83711811113M. Minda1.8311511552LSep 20 · 04:10G. Kesik1.918890R. Stapor1.801111113LSep 20 · 03:00G. Kesik2.1095100D. Solilo1.671111123WSep 13 · 20:05L. Pietraszko1.53631291G. Kesik2.38111110113LSep 13 · 19:15D. Jadam1.6171111113G. Kesik2.20115691LSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132WSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143LSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252
R. Chrzescian10
WSep 20 · 10:25R. Chrzescian1.5311613123M. Minda2.3891111101WSep 20 · 08:30G. Kesik2.209101181R. Chrzescian1.6111129113WSep 20 · 07:20R. Chrzescian1.73111110113D. Solilo2.00791291WSep 20 · 06:05G. Poliniewicz1.6781191182R. Chrzescian2.10118119113WSep 20 · 04:55M. Minda2.5078100R. Chrzescian1.501111123WSep 20 · 03:25R. Stapor2.50811351R. Chrzescian1.5011911113LSep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.251111311113R. Chrzescian1.3376111372WSep 19 · 19:15R. Chrzescian1.73811117113P. Blocho2.0011891192WSep 19 · 18:05P. Maruszak2.75811641R. Chrzescian1.4011811113WSep 19 · 16:55M. Woskowicz2.7531070R. Chrzescian1.401112113
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