TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Jakub Jesiek
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116117––––
Pawel Polok
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Jesiek above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Pawel Polok at 71.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Jesiek 1–2 Pawel Polok Jakub Jesiek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Polok beat Jesiek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jesiek 1356 vs Polok 1447
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jesiek 20% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jesiek 40% vs Polok 70%
Polok
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jesiek -2 · Polok +3
Polok
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJesiek 3.75 / Polok 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13159355
Jesiek3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 71 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Polok1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 94 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it82% 78 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJesiek1wins
AwayPolok2wins
Polok leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jesiek1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S2Jesiek1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S3Jesiek1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricJesiekPolokJ − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match23.329.3−6.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJesiekPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 532 vs 138 / 21452.3%64.5%278 / 532 vs 138 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokJesiek 3.75/Polok 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.8%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 20 · 12:40J. Jesiek331111113P. Polok229670
LSep 20 · 06:30J. Jesiek188820P. Polok331111113
LAug 11 · 03:00J. Jesiek199640P. Polok331111113
J. Jesiek10
WSep 20 · 13:55J. Jesiek1.15111111113A. Szurgot3.85413431LSep 20 · 11:25J. Jesiek2.5010118111W. Wojtaszczyk1.5012511133LSep 20 · 10:10M. Skuril2.05121111113J. Jesiek1.66148371WSep 20 · 09:25J. Jesiek1.731211153W. Buczynski2.00108130LSep 20 · 07:45J. Jesiek1.73104110M. Skuril2.001211133LSep 20 · 06:30J. Jesiek3.008820P. Polok1.361111113WSep 20 · 05:15J. Jesiek2.381111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.539880WSep 20 · 04:10A. Szurgot4.50113981J. Jesiek1.17111111113LSep 20 · 03:25J. Jesiek1.73711100W. Buczynski2.001113123WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113
P. Polok10
WSep 20 · 11:50M. Skuril3.059930P. Polok1.241111113WSep 20 · 11:00P. Polok1.339111011113W. Buczynski3.2511612442WSep 20 · 09:50P. Polok1.0331111113A. Szurgot10.00115751LSep 20 · 08:10P. Polok1.73911761W. Wojtaszczyk2.0011911113WSep 20 · 06:30J. Jesiek3.008820P. Polok1.361111113WSep 20 · 05:40A. Szurgot8.0061060P. Polok1.061112113LSep 20 · 04:55P. Polok1.401071171W. Buczynski2.7512117113WSep 20 · 03:50P. Polok1.36116113113M. Skuril3.0051121172WSep 19 · 14:40P. Polok1.401111113W. Buczynski2.759660LSep 19 · 13:05P. Polok1.20119114102W. Jozala4.33411611123
Upcoming Matches
J. Jesiek
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P. Polok
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