TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Pawel Polok
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111161012114114
Witold Buczynski
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Polok above · Witold Buczynski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 89 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Pawel Polok at 68.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Polok 5–1 Witold Buczynski Witold Buczynski has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Polok
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1460 vs Buczynski 1356
Polok
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 60% vs Buczynski 40%
Polok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 70% vs Buczynski 40%
Polok
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +1 · Buczynski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.33 / Buczynski 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Polok)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13160048
Polok1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 94 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it82% 78 of 95
Buczynski3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 196 of 504
Down 0–1, comes back23% 70 of 301
Down 0–2, comes back5% 8 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePolok5wins
AwayBuczynski1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPolok leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolok100%4 of 4
AwayBuczynskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok4Buczynski2n = 6Polok took 4 of 6
S2Polok4Buczynski2n = 6Polok took 4 of 6
S3Polok3Buczynski3n = 6split evenly
S4Polok3Buczynski2n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPolokBuczynskiP − BBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match42.835.5+7.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 211 vs 442 / 111264.5%39.8%136 / 211 vs 442 / 1112Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.33/Buczynski 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 20 · 04:55P. Polok351071171W. Buczynski4112117113
WSep 19 · 14:40P. Polok331111113W. Buczynski219660
WSep 19 · 06:05P. Polok46111212113W. Buczynski429101491
WAug 16 · 04:10P. Polok511114411113W. Buczynski4681611832
WAug 15 · 12:15P. Polok48711118113W. Buczynski3311331152
WAug 15 · 08:35P. Polok44121110113W. Buczynski301041241
P. Polok10
WSep 20 · 09:50P. Polok1.0331111113A. Szurgot10.00115751LSep 20 · 08:10P. Polok1.73911761W. Wojtaszczyk2.0011911113WSep 20 · 06:30J. Jesiek3.008820P. Polok1.361111113WSep 20 · 05:40A. Szurgot8.0061060P. Polok1.061112113LSep 20 · 04:55P. Polok1.401071171W. Buczynski2.7512117113WSep 20 · 03:50P. Polok1.36116113113M. Skuril3.0051121172WSep 19 · 14:40P. Polok1.401111113W. Buczynski2.759660LSep 19 · 13:05P. Polok1.20119114102W. Jozala4.33411611123WSep 19 · 11:50P. Polok1.53111169113P. Adamus2.3895111172WSep 19 · 10:10P. Polok1.289151110113P. Mecik3.50111321282
W. Buczynski10
LSep 20 · 09:25J. Jesiek1.731211153W. Buczynski2.00108130WSep 20 · 08:35A. Szurgot5.0010811111W. Buczynski1.1412118133LSep 20 · 07:20W. Buczynski3.2541090W. Wojtaszczyk1.331112113LSep 20 · 06:05M. Skuril2.001191111113W. Buczynski1.7313116872WSep 20 · 04:55P. Polok1.401071171W. Buczynski2.7512117113WSep 20 · 03:25J. Jesiek1.73711100W. Buczynski2.001113123LSep 19 · 14:40P. Polok1.401111113W. Buczynski2.759660WSep 19 · 13:30W. Buczynski3.401011159113W. Wojtaszczyk1.30128131162LSep 19 · 12:15W. Jozala2.2591111113W. Buczynski1.57113671LSep 19 · 11:00P. Adamus1.6711711113W. Buczynski2.10811461
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