TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13153496
Played Sep 19Finished
Pawel Polok
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116116––––
Witold Buczynski
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Polok above · Witold Buczynski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Pawel Polok at 65.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Polok 4–0 Witold Buczynski Witold Buczynski has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Polok
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1459 vs Buczynski 1349
Polok
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 40% vs Buczynski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 50% vs Buczynski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok -1 · Buczynski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.40 / Buczynski 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13153496
Polok1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 88 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 73 of 87
Buczynski2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 194 of 498
Down 0–1, comes back23% 69 of 296
Down 0–2, comes back5% 8 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePolok4wins
AwayBuczynski0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderPolok leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolok100%3 of 3
AwayBuczynskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok3Buczynski1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4
S2Polok3Buczynski1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4
S3Polok1Buczynski3n = 4Buczynski took 3 of 4
S4Polok3Buczynski1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPolokBuczynskiP − BBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match47.237.8+9.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 204 vs 442 / 111064.2%39.8%131 / 204 vs 442 / 1110Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.40/Buczynski 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 19 · 06:05P. Polok46111212113W. Buczynski429101491
WAug 16 · 04:10P. Polok511114411113W. Buczynski4681611832
WAug 15 · 12:15P. Polok48711118113W. Buczynski3311331152
WAug 15 · 08:35P. Polok44121110113W. Buczynski301041241
P. Polok10
LSep 19 · 13:05P. Polok1.20119114102W. Jozala4.33411611123WSep 19 · 11:50P. Polok1.53111169113P. Adamus2.3895111172WSep 19 · 10:10P. Polok1.289151110113P. Mecik3.50111321282LSep 19 · 09:00P. Polok1.731291071W. Wojtaszczyk2.00101112113LSep 19 · 07:45R. Szymik2.75881111113P. Polok1.4011116562WSep 19 · 06:55A. Szurgot4.339690P. Polok1.201111113WSep 19 · 06:05P. Polok1.36111212113W. Buczynski3.009101491LSep 19 · 04:30P. Polok1.61111111962W. Wojtaszczyk2.20138311113WSep 19 · 03:50P. Mecik2.758520P. Polok1.401111113LSep 18 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek3.301114113P. Polok1.2791290
W. Buczynski10
WSep 19 · 13:30W. Buczynski3.401011159113W. Wojtaszczyk1.30128131162LSep 19 · 12:15W. Jozala2.2591111113W. Buczynski1.57113671LSep 19 · 11:00P. Adamus1.6711711113W. Buczynski2.10811461LSep 19 · 09:25P. Mecik1.8351113113W. Buczynski1.831181171WSep 19 · 08:35A. Szurgot5.009880W. Buczynski1.141111113LSep 19 · 07:20W. Buczynski3.007670W. Wojtaszczyk1.361111113LSep 19 · 06:05P. Polok1.36111212113W. Buczynski3.009101491WSep 19 · 04:55P. Mecik2.10411111152W. Buczynski1.67117913113WSep 19 · 03:25R. Szymik1.6111791152W. Buczynski2.20811114113WSep 17 · 17:05W. Buczynski2.091111113O. Sokolowski1.614530
Upcoming Matches
P. Polok
Sep 20 · 03:50P. Polok1.36M. Skuril3.00—Sep 20 · 04:55P. Polok1.40W. Buczynski2.75—Sep 20 · 05:40P. Polok1.06A. Szurgot8.00—Sep 20 · 06:30P. Polok1.33J. Jesiek3.25—Sep 20 · 08:10P. Polok1.73W. Wojtaszczyk2.00—Sep 20 · 09:50P. Polok1.06A. Szurgot8.00—Sep 20 · 11:00P. Polok1.40W. Buczynski2.75—Sep 20 · 12:40P. Polok1.33J. Jesiek3.25—Sep 20 · 14:20P. Polok1.73W. Wojtaszczyk2.00—
W. Buczynski
Sep 20 · 03:25W. Buczynski2.00J. Jesiek1.73—Sep 20 · 04:55W. Buczynski2.75P. Polok1.40—Sep 20 · 06:05W. Buczynski1.73M. Skuril2.00—Sep 20 · 07:20W. Buczynski3.25W. Wojtaszczyk1.33—Sep 20 · 08:35W. Buczynski1.14A. Szurgot5.00—Sep 20 · 09:25W. Buczynski2.00J. Jesiek1.73—Sep 20 · 11:00W. Buczynski2.75P. Polok1.40—Sep 20 · 12:15W. Buczynski1.14A. Szurgot5.00—Sep 20 · 13:30W. Buczynski3.40W. Wojtaszczyk1.30—
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