TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Jakub Jesiek
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811211––––
Pawel Polok
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:32 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Jesiek above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 51 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Pawel Polok at 71.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Jesiek 0–2 Pawel Polok Jakub Jesiek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:32What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jesiek 1357 vs Polok 1468
Polok
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jesiek 60% vs Polok 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jesiek 50% vs Polok 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jesiek +2 · Polok +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Polok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJesiek 3.00 / Polok 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13159889
Jesiek3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 71 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Polok1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 94 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it82% 78 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJesiek0wins
AwayPolok2wins
Polok leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricJesiekPolokJ − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match18.533.0−14.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJesiekPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 527 vs 135 / 20952.4%64.6%276 / 527 vs 135 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokJesiek 3.00/Polok 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 20 · 06:30J. Jesiek188820P. Polok331111113
LAug 11 · 03:00J. Jesiek199640P. Polok331111113
J. Jesiek10
WSep 20 · 05:15J. Jesiek2.381111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.539880WSep 20 · 04:10A. Szurgot4.50113981J. Jesiek1.17111111113LSep 20 · 03:25J. Jesiek1.73711100W. Buczynski2.001113123WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670
P. Polok10
WSep 20 · 05:40A. Szurgot8.0061060P. Polok1.061112113LSep 20 · 04:55P. Polok1.401071171W. Buczynski2.7512117113WSep 20 · 03:50P. Polok1.36116113113M. Skuril3.0051121172WSep 19 · 14:40P. Polok1.401111113W. Buczynski2.759660LSep 19 · 13:05P. Polok1.20119114102W. Jozala4.33411611123WSep 19 · 11:50P. Polok1.53111169113P. Adamus2.3895111172WSep 19 · 10:10P. Polok1.289151110113P. Mecik3.50111321282LSep 19 · 09:00P. Polok1.731291071W. Wojtaszczyk2.00101112113LSep 19 · 07:45R. Szymik2.75881111113P. Polok1.4011116562WSep 19 · 06:55A. Szurgot4.339690P. Polok1.201111113
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