TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13148741
Played Sep 18Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.54
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210116511119––
Michal Paszkiewicz
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Paszkiewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1210116511119––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 3–3 Michal Paszkiewicz Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1462 vs Paszkiewicz 1382
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 80% vs Paszkiewicz 100%
Paszkiewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 60% vs Paszkiewicz 80%
Paszkiewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +2 · Paszkiewicz +5
Paszkiewicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paszkiewicz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.54 / Paszkiewicz 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Skotniczny)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13148741
Skotniczny1.54
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 206 of 326
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it81% 155 of 191
Paszkiewicz2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 74 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSkotniczny3wins
AwayPaszkiewicz3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny75%3 of 4
AwayPaszkiewiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny4Paszkiewicz2n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S2Skotniczny4Paszkiewicz2n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S3Skotniczny2Paszkiewicz4n = 6Paszkiewicz took 4 of 6
S4Skotniczny2Paszkiewicz2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyPaszkiewiczS − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.837.3+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyPaszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime601 / 1038 vs 420 / 78457.9%53.6%601 / 1038 vs 420 / 784Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.54/Paszkiewicz 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.2%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 18 · 07:30R. Skotniczny3912115113M. Paszkiewicz361061191
LAug 15 · 11:50R. Skotniczny46111195102M. Paszkiewicz48951111123
WAug 15 · 03:50R. Skotniczny331111113M. Paszkiewicz217590
LAug 7 · 07:10R. Skotniczny40981491M. Paszkiewicz45111112113
LFeb 19 · 13:20R. Skotniczny34139120M. Paszkiewicz401511143
WFeb 19 · 09:20R. Skotniczny4111118113M. Paszkiewicz34591191
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 18 · 09:05P. Slosarczyk2.953650R. Skotniczny1.331111113WSep 18 · 08:20O. Jadach1.8013590R. Skotniczny1.851511113WSep 18 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.9511712113G. Wichowski1.747111091WSep 15 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.481111143K. Jablonski2.3474120LSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332WSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091WSep 15 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.751111133R. Gajda1.9888110LSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.489101111112K. Jablonski2.34111268133LSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100
M. Paszkiewicz10
WSep 18 · 08:45G. Wichowski1.5571720M. Paszkiewicz2.151119113WSep 18 · 05:55P. Slosarczyk2.2581180M. Paszkiewicz1.541113113WSep 16 · 08:20M. Paszkiewicz2.19111110113M. Lebek1.56941281WSep 16 · 06:45P. Mecik2.10281311112M. Paszkiewicz1.601111114133WSep 16 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.2091412692M. Paszkiewicz1.5711121011113WSep 16 · 05:10M. Paszkiewicz1.221011911133K. Kowalski3.75127113112LSep 16 · 04:00M. Paszkiewicz2.4268100S. Szostok1.461111123LSep 12 · 14:20A. Cichocki1.3351111113M. Paszkiewicz3.25115991WSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113WSep 12 · 11:25K. Juszczyk1.44312931M. Paszkiewicz2.63111011113
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
M. Paszkiewicz
Sep 18 · 09:55M. Paszkiewicz1.60W. Tobiasz2.10—Sep 18 · 11:05M. Paszkiewicz2.60O. Jadach1.41—Sep 18 · 11:55M. Paszkiewicz1.54P. Slosarczyk2.25—Sep 18 · 13:30M. Paszkiewicz2.25R. Skotniczny1.46—Sep 18 · 14:45M. Paszkiewicz2.60O. Jadach1.41—Sep 18 · 15:55M. Paszkiewicz—W. Tobiasz——Sep 18 · 17:05M. Paszkiewicz—G. Wichowski——
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