TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142640
Played Sep 17Finished
Volodymir Maksuta
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511114118117––
Andrii Droshchynskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymir Maksuta above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Volodymir Maksuta 4–1 Andrii Droshchynskyi Andrii Droshchynskyi has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maksuta
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Maksuta
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksuta 1576 vs Droshchynskyi 1741
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksuta 40% vs Droshchynskyi 80%
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksuta 30% vs Droshchynskyi 70%
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksuta -1 · Droshchynskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Droshchynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksuta 1.80 / Droshchynskyi 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13142640
Maksuta1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 80 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it82% 66 of 81
Droshchynskyi1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 15 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMaksuta4wins
AwayDroshchynskyi1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMaksuta leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksuta100%3 of 3
AwayDroshchynskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksuta3Droshchynskyi2n = 5Maksuta took 3 of 5
S2Maksuta3Droshchynskyi2n = 5Maksuta took 3 of 5
S3Maksuta4Droshchynskyi1n = 5Maksuta took 4 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMaksutaDroshchynskyiM − DBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match32.026.6+5.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksutaDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 296 vs 125 / 21656.8%57.9%168 / 296 vs 125 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiMaksuta 1.80/Droshchynskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maksuta won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 12 · 12:40V. Maksuta174490A. Droshchynskyi331111113
WAug 13 · 11:40V. Maksuta331111113A. Droshchynskyi153840
WJun 23 · 24:10V. Maksuta331111113A. Droshchynskyi279990
WApr 12 · 07:00V. Maksuta44651111113A. Droshchynskyi3811117632
WJan 9 · 12:40V. Maksuta331111113A. Droshchynskyi208750
V. Maksuta10
WSep 17 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.83115791V. Maksuta1.8391111113LSep 17 · 14:40V. Maksuta1.53412971A. Zozulia2.38111011113WSep 17 · 13:10V. Maksuta1.50101111113Y. Holoborodko2.50123651WSep 17 · 11:10V. Maksuta1.91711112113I. Efimenko1.8011941182LSep 12 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk3.2511146113V. Maksuta1.339121191LSep 12 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.501011513113V. Maksuta1.50128111182LSep 12 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.8341191183V. Maksuta1.8311911972LSep 12 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi2.751111113V. Maksuta1.404490WSep 12 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.101011631V. Maksuta1.6712811113LSep 10 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.838970O. Kuzyshyn1.831111113
A. Droshchynskyi10
WSep 17 · 13:40V. Merzlikin4.00147331A. Droshchynskyi1.22121111113WSep 17 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.73151358113A. Zozulia2.001311111172LSep 17 · 11:40Y. Holoborodko2.75116611113A. Droshchynskyi1.4081111692WSep 13 · 11:00O. Varlamov3.0010430A. Droshchynskyi1.361211113WSep 13 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko2.636760A. Droshchynskyi1.441111113WSep 13 · 08:30M. Tiutiunnyk3.509970A. Droshchynskyi1.281111113LSep 13 · 06:30A. Zozulia2.1031211113A. Droshchynskyi1.671110771LSep 13 · 04:30Y. Bondarenko1.83111017113A. Droshchynskyi1.837121531WSep 12 · 17:40A. Droshchynskyi1.5011118113Y. Holoborodko2.50941171WSep 12 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi2.751111113V. Maksuta1.404490
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