TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142591
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleg Pavlyuk
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115511411911––
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Pavlyuk above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 67 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 62.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Pavlyuk 3–5 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Oleg Pavlyuk has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlyuk 1575 vs Bondarchuk 1945
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 370 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlyuk 60% vs Bondarchuk 80%
Bondarchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlyuk 60% vs Bondarchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlyuk -1 · Bondarchuk +4
Bondarchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Bondarchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlyuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlyuk 2.75 / Bondarchuk 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Bondarchuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142591
Pavlyuk2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Bondarchuk1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 74 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePavlyuk3wins
AwayBondarchuk5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlyuk50%2 of 4
AwayBondarchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlyuk4Bondarchuk4n = 8split evenly
S2Pavlyuk5Bondarchuk3n = 8Pavlyuk took 5 of 8
S3Pavlyuk2Bondarchuk6n = 8Bondarchuk took 6 of 8
S4Pavlyuk3Bondarchuk4n = 7Bondarchuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricPavlyukBondarchukP − BBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match36.239.5−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlyukBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 48 vs 192 / 33837.5%56.8%18 / 48 vs 192 / 338Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukPavlyuk 2.75/Bondarchuk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 12 · 08:00O. Pavlyuk351171161O. Bondarchuk4381113113
LAug 22 · 09:00O. Pavlyuk4311513862O. Bondarchuk506111111113
LAug 21 · 17:40O. Pavlyuk125340O. Bondarchuk331111113
WJun 21 · 06:35O. Pavlyuk46101211133O. Bondarchuk3912106111
LJun 20 · 12:10O. Pavlyuk361011781O. Bondarchuk3712311113
WMar 21 · 09:00O. Pavlyuk4114115113O. Bondarchuk401291181
WJan 31 · 08:35O. Pavlyuk4211119113O. Bondarchuk30571171
LJan 30 · 16:10O. Pavlyuk35913581O. Bondarchuk44111111113
O. Pavlyuk10
LSep 17 · 17:00O. Zhurba1.111111113O. Pavlyuk6.007470WSep 17 · 15:00D. Neborak1.731212128122O. Pavlyuk2.0014101011143WSep 17 · 14:00O. Pavlyuk1.801111113I. Hermakivskyi1.914470WSep 17 · 13:00O. Ivchuk1.6111119832O. Pavlyuk2.20691111113LMay 23 · 11:35S. Rak1.501111113O. Pavlyuk2.509680LMay 23 · 10:05O. Pavlyuk2.385950A. Zeniuk1.531111113WMay 23 · 08:05Y. Kravets2.2068100O. Pavlyuk1.611111123WMay 23 · 06:05V. Plishylo1.83121171142O. Pavlyuk1.831091113113WMay 23 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.831111118102O. Pavlyuk1.83136411123LMay 22 · 19:05O. Pavlyuk2.00711115102D. Shcherbak1.73115811123
O. Bondarchuk10
WSep 17 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.3611119113I. Hermakivskyi3.00811191WSep 17 · 15:30O. Ivchuk3.756690O. Bondarchuk1.251111113WSep 17 · 13:30D. Neborak3.25911591O. Bondarchuk1.3311711113WSep 17 · 12:30O. Zhurba1.2011770O. Bondarchuk4.331311113LSep 11 · 11:25O. Bondarchuk2.501412771B. Kohut1.50121411113WSep 11 · 09:25A. Molochko1.2812771172O. Bondarchuk3.501011116113WSep 11 · 07:25D. Zeniuk2.00511481O. Bondarchuk1.7311811113LSep 11 · 06:25O. Bondarchuk3.754240N. Danyliuk1.251111113LSep 11 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.531113113O. Bondarchuk2.3851180LSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640
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