TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13138565
Played Sep 16Finished
Kamil Kowalewski
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6115111113––––
Karol Guzy
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:35 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
6115111113––––
H2H Kamil Kowalewski 21–37 Karol Guzy Kamil Kowalewski has won 21 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-37 in 58
Guzy
Correct
gap of 16 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalewski 1649 vs Guzy 1628
Kowalewski
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalewski 40% vs Guzy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalewski 40% vs Guzy 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalewski -1 · Guzy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalewski 1.85 / Guzy 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Guzy)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13138565
Kowalewski1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Guzy1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowalewski3wins
AwayGuzy7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalewski25%1 of 4
AwayGuzy66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalewski4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Kowalewski6Guzy4n = 10Kowalewski took 6 of 10
S3Kowalewski5Guzy5n = 10split evenly
S4Kowalewski5Guzy4n = 9Kowalewski took 5 of 9
S5Kowalewski0Guzy4n = 4Guzy took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalewskiGuzyK − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.641.2−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalewskiGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 306 vs 649 / 108060.5%60.1%185 / 306 vs 649 / 1080Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyKowalewski 1.85/Guzy 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 14:15K. Kowalewski34118691K. Guzy4291111113
LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski4351181182K. Guzy47117117113
LSep 5 · 19:05K. Kowalewski381014771K. Guzy46121211113
LSep 4 · 19:30K. Kowalewski50111181372K. Guzy50761115113
WSep 3 · 22:40K. Kowalewski4691111153K. Guzy381168131
LSep 3 · 14:00K. Kowalewski48781111112K. Guzy48111176133
WAug 29 · 23:45K. Kowalewski4071111113K. Guzy26117441
LAug 29 · 19:05K. Kowalewski25117431K. Guzy4181111113
WAug 28 · 15:00K. Kowalewski331111113K. Guzy229850
LAug 27 · 22:30K. Kowalewski4989131182K. Guzy521111118113
K. Kowalewski10
LSep 16 · 15:00K. Kowalewski1.82158111192G. Rokita1.89171168113LSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691WSep 6 · 12:05K. Kowalewski1.3391313113K. Zapala2.8511111191LSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113WSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102LSep 5 · 22:35K. Kowalewski—13981452M. Szymanski—11111112113LSep 5 · 21:35K. Zapala2.6091111133K. Kowalewski1.441167111WSep 5 · 20:35M. Szymanski2.1010149101K. Kowalewski1.60121211123
K. Guzy10
LSep 16 · 15:30P. Odelski2.1011611113K. Guzy1.66911891WSep 13 · 13:35K. Zapala2.05911671K. Guzy1.6811911113LSep 13 · 13:05K. Guzy1.50771191K. Zapala2.4011115113WSep 13 · 11:05B. Bartosz1.8481391162K. Guzy1.831111114113LSep 13 · 09:05A. Duch1.711111113K. Guzy2.003790LSep 13 · 08:05D. Bucko1.6611813113K. Guzy2.019111151LSep 13 · 07:35K. Guzy1.706890M. Szymanski2.051111113LSep 12 · 20:15M. Szymanski2.05113117113K. Guzy1.6841161142WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691WSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113
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