TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13131518
Played Sep 14Finished
Radek Adamczyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412116511911117
Tomas Navrat
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Adamczyk to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Adamczyk above · Tomas Navrat below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radek Adamczyk at 54.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Radek Adamczyk 3–1 Tomas Navrat Tomas Navrat has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Adamczyk beat Navrat 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Adamczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Adamczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamczyk 1358 vs Navrat 1216
Adamczyk
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamczyk 80% vs Navrat 40%
Adamczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamczyk 70% vs Navrat 40%
Adamczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamczyk +3 · Navrat -1
Adamczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Adamczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamczyk 1.57 / Navrat 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Adamczyk)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13131518
Adamczyk1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite50% won 21 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Navrat2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 6 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdamczyk3wins
AwayNavrat1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderAdamczyk leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamczyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayNavratn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamczyk3Navrat1n = 4Adamczyk took 3 of 4
S2Adamczyk3Navrat1n = 4Adamczyk took 3 of 4
S3Adamczyk2Navrat2n = 4split evenly
S4Adamczyk0Navrat3n = 3Navrat took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamczykNavratA − NBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.541.2+2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamczykNavratBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 88 vs 24 / 6452.3%37.5%46 / 88 vs 24 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamczykAdamczyk 1.57/Navrat 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Adamczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 14 · 21:30R. Adamczyk50141159113T. Navrat47126111172
WSep 14 · 20:00R. Adamczyk351311113T. Navrat2011720
WJul 3 · 21:30R. Adamczyk49911135113T. Navrat51119111192
LJul 3 · 19:00R. Adamczyk40168791T. Navrat47141111113
R. Adamczyk10
WSep 14 · 20:00R. Adamczyk1.831311113T. Navrat1.8311720WSep 14 · 19:30M. Blaha2.00611111162R. Adamczyk1.73111388113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Adamczyk1.401111113A. Kanak2.756470LSep 12 · 17:30R. Adamczyk1.50139118102Z. Luksa2.501111711123WSep 12 · 16:00M. Blaha1.8091080R. Adamczyk1.911112113WSep 12 · 15:00I. Kolenciak3.40691161R. Adamczyk1.3011116113WSep 12 · 14:30R. Adamczyk1.671111113Z. Luksa2.108980LAug 22 · 21:04R. Adamczyk1.919101141M. Blaha1.8011128113WAug 22 · 20:30R. Adamczyk2.00116711113M. Blaha1.7371111792LAug 22 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.75131181152V. Kocian1.40159119113
T. Navrat10
LSep 14 · 20:00R. Adamczyk1.831311113T. Navrat1.8311720WSep 14 · 19:00A. Kanak1.6710990T. Navrat2.101211113WSep 14 · 18:30T. Navrat1.53713811113M. Blaha2.38111111882LAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:00V. Rybar1.3613811113T. Navrat3.001111661WAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113LAug 20 · 18:30T. Navrat1.36113581M. Blaha3.0091111113LJul 17 · 21:05V. Rybar1.441111113T. Navrat2.638490LJul 17 · 20:00V. Rybar2.0091111113T. Navrat1.73119661WJul 17 · 19:00V. Kocian1.67119911102T. Navrat2.10911119123
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