TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13131451
Played Sep 14Finished
Lubos Krticka
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111181181012411
Tomas Janata
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLubos Krticka above · Tomas Janata below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Tomas Janata at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Lubos Krticka 8–10 Tomas Janata Lubos Krticka has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Krticka beat Janata 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Janata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Janata
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krticka 1612 vs Janata 1594
Krticka
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krticka 80% vs Janata 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krticka 60% vs Janata 90%
Janata
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krticka +4 · Janata +1
Krticka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Janata) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janata form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrticka 2.10 / Janata 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Janata)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13131451
Krticka2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 16 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back18% 3 of 17
Janata1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 112 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it75% 79 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrticka5wins
AwayJanata5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrticka83.3%5 of 6
AwayJanata100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krticka6Janata4n = 10Krticka took 6 of 10
S2Krticka6Janata4n = 10Krticka took 6 of 10
S3Krticka4Janata6n = 10Janata took 6 of 10
S4Krticka4Janata4n = 8split evenly
S5Krticka1Janata2n = 3Janata took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrtickaJanataK − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.338.30.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrtickaJanataBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 191 vs 439 / 83248.7%52.8%93 / 191 vs 439 / 832Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanataKrticka 2.10/Janata 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Janata · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Janata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 21:30L. Krticka41511111042T. Janata50118812113
WSep 14 · 19:30L. Krticka4111118113T. Janata35981171
WSep 7 · 21:00L. Krticka4211713113T. Janata346111161
LSep 7 · 18:00L. Krticka4798111182T. Janata46111194113
LApr 10 · 19:00L. Krticka197480T. Janata331111113
WApr 6 · 20:58L. Krticka331111113T. Janata238780
LApr 6 · 19:30L. Krticka341158101T. Janata3841111123
LJan 2 · 20:00L. Krticka3910118101T. Janata3912411123
WDec 16 · 19:30L. Krticka44111174113T. Janata4789111182
WNov 21 · 20:00L. Krticka43111110113T. Janata38991281
L. Krticka10
WSep 14 · 20:30M. Sedlak1.80581191L. Krticka1.9111114113WSep 14 · 19:30L. Krticka2.2511118113T. Janata1.57981171WSep 14 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8313961122L. Krticka1.831111118113WSep 7 · 21:00T. Janata1.536111161L. Krticka2.3811713113LSep 7 · 20:30L. Krticka2.503430J. Hradecky1.501111113LSep 7 · 19:00L. Krticka2.10111180M. Vedmoch1.671313113LSep 7 · 18:00T. Janata1.44111194113L. Krticka2.6398111182WAug 16 · 21:29F. Just1.6181070L. Krticka2.201112113LAug 16 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.501111113L. Krticka2.506080WAug 16 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.63101261162L. Krticka1.441210115113
T. Janata10
WSep 14 · 20:00T. Janata1.501212113T. Dousa2.50101090LSep 14 · 19:30L. Krticka2.2511118113T. Janata1.57981171WSep 14 · 18:00T. Janata1.8311113113M. Sedlak1.83871161WSep 12 · 03:30T. Janata1.5261111113T. Dousa2.35119991WSep 12 · 02:30T. Janata1.40711611113J. Dedek2.7511711662WSep 12 · 01:30T. Dousa2.381011911112T. Janata1.53127118133WSep 12 · 24:00T. Janata1.501112113J. Plachy2.5081090WSep 11 · 23:00Y. Holovatiuk3.501081121T. Janata1.2812119113LSep 7 · 21:00T. Janata1.536111161L. Krticka2.3811713113WSep 7 · 18:00T. Janata1.44111194113L. Krticka2.6398111182
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