TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124391
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Dousa
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311911611118211
Lubos Krticka
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Lubos Krticka below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 93 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Tomas Dousa at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousa 12–9 Lubos Krticka Lubos Krticka has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Krticka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Dousa
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousa 1519 vs Krticka 1560
Krticka
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousa 40% vs Krticka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousa 40% vs Krticka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousa -2 · Krticka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krticka form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousa 1.83 / Krticka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dousa)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124391
Dousa1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Krticka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousa6wins
AwayKrticka4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDousa leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousa85.7%6 of 7
AwayKrticka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousa7Krticka3n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S2Dousa5Krticka5n = 10split evenly
S3Dousa7Krticka3n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S4Dousa2Krticka3n = 5Krticka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousaKrtickaD − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.433.7+2.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousaKrtickaBasisWin rate · lifetime350 / 708 vs 91 / 19149.4%47.6%350 / 708 vs 91 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousaDousa 1.83/Krticka 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dousa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krticka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 30 · 19:00T. Dousa361110781L. Krticka4061211113
LJun 9 · 19:00T. Dousa153930L. Krticka331111113
WMay 12 · 18:30T. Dousa531112117123L. Krticka48814511102
WApr 26 · 21:00T. Dousa331111113L. Krticka225980
LApr 26 · 19:30T. Dousa381211871L. Krticka4214611113
WFeb 3 · 20:30T. Dousa4511914113L. Krticka335111251
LOct 14 · 21:00T. Dousa4055111362L. Krticka521111811113
WOct 14 · 18:30T. Dousa381115123L. Krticka29613100
WOct 8 · 21:30T. Dousa331111113L. Krticka195770
WOct 8 · 20:30T. Dousa331111113L. Krticka199460
T. Dousa10
LSep 12 · 03:30T. Janata1.5261111113T. Dousa2.35119991LSep 12 · 01:30T. Dousa2.381011911112T. Janata1.53127118133WSep 12 · 24:30Y. Holovatiuk2.63121155122T. Dousa1.441041111143LSep 11 · 23:30J. Dedek1.83911811163T. Dousa1.83117117142WSep 11 · 22:30T. Dousa1.831112113J. Plachy1.8371090WSep 11 · 20:58T. Dousa2.1091112113J. Plachy1.671191081LSep 11 · 20:00T. Janata1.50811611143T. Dousa2.50119115122LSep 11 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.00971111113T. Dousa1.7311116992WSep 11 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8381111113J. Plachy1.83118981LSep 10 · 16:59T. Dousa3.508990M. Sedlak1.281111113
L. Krticka10
WSep 7 · 21:00T. Janata1.536111161L. Krticka2.3811713113LSep 7 · 20:30L. Krticka2.503430J. Hradecky1.501111113LSep 7 · 19:00L. Krticka2.10111180M. Vedmoch1.671313113LSep 7 · 18:00T. Janata1.44111194113L. Krticka2.6398111182WAug 16 · 21:29F. Just1.6181070L. Krticka2.201112113LAug 16 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.501111113L. Krticka2.506080WAug 16 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.63101261162L. Krticka1.441210115113WAug 16 · 18:30L. Krticka2.75111495113F. Just1.40612111182WAug 13 · 21:00K. Kapras1.36911111192L. Krticka3.00117613113LAug 13 · 20:00D. Tuma1.3611129113L. Krticka3.007101181
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